Blog Posts

Nifty50 At 9150!!! But Do These 'Levels' Actually Matter?

If you’re wondering whether the emphatic victory BJP witnessed in the all important state of Uttar Pradhesh, alongside Uttarakhand too, and also readying to form governments in Manipuar and Goa is reason enough to drive markets crazy (a 150 point ↑ crazy), the answer is yes. I mean why not??? This phenomenal victory sets the foundation for its emulation in the 2019 general elections. It also gives a clear message that Mr. Narendra Modi and his reforms are here to stay. All the reforms that have sprouted in the past 30 months including the banking sector cleanup, check on tax evasion and black money recovery, focus on ease of doing business in India, the Make in India program, Demonetization,

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Warren Buffett's 2016 Shareholder Letter: Top 5 Lessons for All Investors

There are hardly any things that are more valuable to an investor, well the long term ones, than to read the legendary Warren Buffett’s annual letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Remember, it’s not some ordinary annual letter of a company that just gives updates about its operations, it’s a lot more. These letters come loaded with ‘holy’ investment advice and there is a lot that investors can learn from the man’s signature wit and his perceptive thinking. This time’s letter was no different. He covered his usual range of topics ranging from performance of Berkshire Hathaway and its operating units to prospects of the US economy to advice for corporate executives and individual investors.

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Markets In February 2017 : Movers & Shakers Of The Month

At the start of every month, we collect and publish the top news that affected Indian equity markets the month before, to help our readers be in touch with the overall market conditions and thereby make smarter and informed investment decisions. Continuing our trend of our exclusive monthly newsletter, we again bring to you, all movers and shakers for the second month of CY2017. Hope you find the newsletter insightful and have a good time reading it. Sit back, and enjoy:

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Indian Hotel Industry : Now Gaining Momentum

The Indian travel and tourism sector has emerged as one of the key sectors, contributing handsomely to our GDP. It has been one of those sectors that has been driving the growth of the services sector of India. However, its success or failure has always been linked to the prospects of growth in the hospitality industry on the outer level and the maturation of the hotel industry on the inner level. The hotel industry, being one of the most ignored industries in the lot, is still expected to generate more than 2.3 million jobs in India. Have a look at our outlook for the sector:

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Markets In January 2017 : Movers & Shakers Of The Month

Every month we collect and publish the top news of the past 30 days, to help our readers be in touch with the overall market conditions and thereby make smarter and informed investment decisions. Continuing our trend of our exclusive monthly newsletter, we again bring to you, all the news and events that affected the Indian Stock Market for the first month of 2017. Hope you find the newsletter insightful and have a good time reading it. Sit back, and enjoy:

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Why Do Few Investors Make Most Of The Money In The Stock Market?

Before we start anything, here is a powerful quote from the man whom the great Warren Buffet describes as his 'partner', Charlie Munger : “The big money is not in the buying and selling … but in the waiting.”

There has always been this notion in the minds of investors, that, “If I am smart enough, I’ll definitely compound my profits by dealing in stocks.” But what exactly does ‘smart enough’ mean?

(a) Is it knowing all the publicly available information about the company?

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Markets In December 2016 : Movers & Shakers Of The Month

Every month we collect and publish the top news of the past 30 days, to help our readers be in touch with the overall market conditions and thereby make smarter and informed investment decisions. Continuing our trend of our exclusive monthly newsletter, we again bring to you, all the news and events that affected the Indian Stock Market for the last month of 2016. Hope you find the newsletter insightful and have a good time reading it. Sit back, and enjoy:

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Rakesh Jhunjhunwala : “Demonetization is history. If you have money, be bullish and put it in stocks now.”

Contrary to most analysts who have been bearish on market’s performance due to demonetization, India’s very own Warren Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala advises investors to invest in stocks. He, in an ET Interview, shows confidence on the fact that demonetization-induced situation will normalize sooner than expected and that selling by FIIs is likely to reverse. He also quotes, “Demonetization is history. If you have money, put it in stocks.” which shows his bullishness towards Indian equities. Enjoy the Edited excerpts:

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Perceived Risk v/s Actual Risk Of The Market? Are You Getting It Right?

Every day, more and more evidence is seen to be emerging that investors have started to doubt their decisions with regards to their stance on equity holdings. There has been an increasing predicament on whether the thrill to buy valuable and growing businesses is actually worth it as of now? Also, there is a clear ambiguity on how risky the market is given the current state of things! Well, let’s put an end to this equivocation and also get to know another aspect of how to look at markets in such a volatile scenario. We shall understand that how high risk perceptions create opportunities for investors, and how to identify catalysts that indicate a reversal.

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Is Money Lying Idle In Your Bank Account A Good Option?

Last week, the Finance Minister of India - Mr. Arun Jaitley announced a host of discounts and concessions to encourage people throughout the country to opt for digital payments. Some of the highlights of the same being (a) 0.75% discount on petrol and diesel, (b) no service tax on digital transaction charges/MDR of up to Rs. 2000, (c) 10% discount on buying general or life insurance policies of public sector insurance companies among many others. The message is quite clear:

“To encourage people to go digital and transform India into a ‘cashless’ economy.”

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Demonetization : Are Stock Prices Attractive Enough Now?

Last week, the Finance Minister of India - Mr. Arun Jaitley announced a host of discounts and concessions to encourage people throughout the country to opt for digital payments. Some of the highlights of the same being (a) 0.75% discount on petrol and diesel, (b) no service tax on digital transaction charges/MDR of up to Rs. 2000, (c) 10% discount on buying general or life insurance policies of public sector insurance companies among many others. The message is quite clear:

“To encourage people to go digital and transform India into a ‘cashless’ economy.”

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Markets In November 2016 : Movers & Shakers Of The Month

November had a truly historical event, one that the Indian investors have seen just twice before (1946 and 1978), making most major indices register some of the biggest ever intraday falls; the impact of which is still seen in the market. The month turned out to be a totally different experience for many and a forgettable one for most. We bring to you the movers and shakers of the Indian stock market, the ones that actually made a difference for the month of November 2016, so sit back and enjoy:

Demonetization of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes:

  • On the 8th of November, the Prime Minister of India, Mr. Narendra Modi announced to demonetize almost 85% of our total currency of Rs. 15 lakh crores. The move is aimed at eradicating black money and slush funds operating since Independence and also cutting out all possible forms of funding to terrorists.
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Demonetization - How Does It Affect You As An Investor?

For a little more than a week now, demonetization of high value notes (Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000) has been polarizing the country between those who support the idea and those who are against it. The move has had a big impact on the stock market. The BSE Sensex has crashed more than 1800 points with the broader Nifty50 index tanking by almost 625 points in the last 8 trading sessions. A lot of investors are withdrawing capital from stocks. Some, because they are out of funds (since the currency they had at their homes no longer works) and others, well because they simply expect an even bigger crash!

This panic was nothing but complimented by the victory of controversial US presidential candidate Donald Trump just before the announcement of this demonetization scheme by our Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi. Add to it, the fears of a likely Fed Rate hike in December this year.

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Institutional Sponsorship - Boon or Bane?

Like we saw in one of our previous articles, on the ‘Law Of Supply & Demand – An Analyst’s Point Of View’, we should now be well versed with the fact that institutions like mutual funds, pension funds, hedge funds, insurance companies and banks generate that big demand which eventually pushes the stock price up or down, depending on the quantity and speed with which they buy or sell. So what do they have to do with the decisions that you make? Accepted, that you might have done your analysis on the earnings, revenues, peers, the industry as well as the market scenario; but the fact that most of us aren’t aware about, is that these big buyers account for the biggest slice of daily market activity. For example, last year, FIIs and DIIs traded securities worth more than Rs. 31.1 lakh crores together as against the overall Rs. 51.1 lakh crores; i.e. more than 60% of the overall traded value.

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Indian Cement Sector : Back In The Black?

Cement is one of the core industries of India that plays a vital role in the growth and development of our country. We are the second largest producer of cement worldwide, with the industry expanding on back of increasing infrastructure activities and demand from housing sector over the past many years. However, in the recent times, muted demand, excess capacity and declining prices lead to a short term downfall. Here are some of the most important triggers that we think will help take the industry to levels like never before:

Summary:

  • India is the second largest cement producer in the world, with close to 400 MMT of capacity currently and an average capacity utilization rate of 70% in FY2016. Thus, with a 282 MMT output (70% of 400 MMT), Indian cement production accounts for around 6.7% of the total world production.
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Markets In August 2016 : Movers & Shakers Of The Month

Every month we collect and publish the Top news of the past 30 days, to help our readers be in touch with the overall market conditions and thereby make smarter and informed investment decisions. Continuing this trend for the third consecutive month, here are the movers and shakers of the Indian stock market for the month of August 2016, have a look:

Good Corporate Earnings

  • As of 31st August 2016, 45 of the 51 companies that form the benchmark Nifty50 index had declared their Q1FY17 results.
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How To Pick Best Industry Groups While Selecting Stocks?

After all our articles in which we’ve covered factors that are to be considered while selecting a stock, like quarterly and annual earnings, stock price relevancy, P/E ratios, portfolio diversification, new products, management changes, supply & demand, correct time to enter, etc., we now move on to the a relatively ignored parameter, the ‘Industry Group’ of a stock.

Remember, more than 50% of the market winners usually belong to leading industries. Roughly half of stock price movement is driven by the strength of its respective industry...

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Fear & Greed: Don’t Let Emotions Come In The Way Of Your Stock Market Success

Before we start, just ask yourself these 5 questions:

  • Do you still remember the stock market crash of 2008 or the bloodbath that the world markets (including India) witnessed during the Yuan devaluation in 2015 or take the most recent Brexit referendum for that matter, and how it eroded your precious hard earned wealth?
  • Do you still curse yourself for waiting that just that little while longer and eventually booking an even bigger loss?
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Markets In July 2016: Movers & Shakers Of The Month

Following the trend that we started last month, we bring to you our second monthly newsletter in 2016 for the month of July. With not many events happening around, be it domestic or global, have a look at the market performance, which was pre-dominantly driven by corporate Q1FY17 results and a positive FII/FPI sentiment:

Good Corporate Earnings:

  • As of 31st July 2016, 25 of the 51 companies that form the benchmark Nifty50 index had declared their Q1FY17 results.
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Indian Fertilizer Industry: On The Cusp Of A Revival?

Update (10th Jan, 2017): This report was published by StockAxis on 2nd August, 2016. The conclusion being as follows: “Hence, one can say that the fertilizer industry can achieve its previous highs considering the approach of the government towards agriculture and allied activities…” and that is exactly what is happening right now. Have a look:

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Markets In June 2016 : Movers & Shakers Of The Month (Part 1/3)

For the first time ever, we bring to you an exclusive monthly newsletter covering all major events in June 2016 that helped the Indian equity markets witness its ups and downs. Have a look at the Part 1/3 of our monthly newsletter and enjoy the seen and the unseen aspects of the news which actually mattered:

Rexit

  • The weekend email by Indian Central Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan to his colleagues conveying a sense of finality on his intention to not to seek a second term at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), came as a surprise to all. Everyone expected the stock market to react negatively on monday (20th June, 2016), as all believed that Rajan’s bold policy decisions were instrumental in stabilizing the rupee and controlling the inflation.
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Markets In June 2016 : Movers & Shakers Of The Month (Part 2/3)

After covering Rexit, and the FDI changes which were perceived as by many as a move to blunt the hangover effects of the Central Bank Governor, Raghuram Rajan’s unexpected exit decision from his office, we now bring to you the Part 2/3 of our June 2016 monthly newsletter. Have a look at the our topic in focus:

Monsoon Onset

  • 2016’s best news for India has been the “above normal” rainfall that the IMD has predicted after two consecutive years of droughts. Rainfall, which is the lifeline for lakhs of farmers in India, has been disappointing for the past two years, is expected at 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
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Markets In June 2016 : Movers & Shakers Of The Month (Part 3/3)

Coming to the last part of our June 2016 monthly newsletter, after covering Rexit, FDI Changes and the possible impacts of this year's monsoon, we now look at the expected outcomes of the scheduled US Federal Reserve Meet, analyze last month's performance and finally give concluding thoughts on the Indian stock market. Have a look:

Fed Rate

  • Britain's exit from the 28-nation European Union was something that came as a surprise to financial markets across the globe. Shockwaves travelled across most of the financial markets on Friday i.e. 23rd June, 2016 after the outcome of the UK referendum.
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Everything You Need To Know About The Indian Retail Industry

The Retail Industry in India has come forth as one of the most dynamic and fast paced industries with several players entering the market. But not all of them have yet tasted success because of the heavy initial investments that are required to break even and compete with other companies. The Indian Retail Industry is gradually inching its way towards becoming the next boom industry. Here are the triggers for the same:

Summary:

  • Retail sector in India is one of the largest contributors to its GDP. It accounts for around 8% of India’s employment and contributes to over 10% of the GDP.
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BREXIT: How Will It Affect India?

The United Kingdom has held the referendum for whether to remain in or leave the 28-nation European Union (EU) on 23rd June, 2016 i.e. today; the event which is termed as the most important global event of the year and is expected to have profound implications for various economies across the world. Let us have a look at the IMPACT it would have on the Indian economy:

  • According to the Commerce and Industry Ministry, India's bilateral trade with Britain stood at $14.02 Billion in 2015-16 ($8.83 Billion in exports and $5.19 Billion in imports). Thus, the trade balance was a positive $3.64 Billion. This would be affected as a possible Brexit is estimated to shrink Britain’s GDP by 360 basis points in the next two years, shrink the employment rate by 160 basis points and the pound by around 15-20%.
  • There are around 800 NRI owned businesses in the UK with close to 110,000 employees. Also, India invests more in UK than the rest of the Europe combined; the key factor for this investment being the free cross border access to the European markets from one of its best economies as of date. Brexit ceases them of this privilege bearing a cloud of uncertainty on future investments.
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Media & Entertainment (M&E) Industry: The Sunrise Sector Of India

The year 2015 is considered to be an inflection point for the Indian Media & Entertainment (M&E) industry. It has now positioned itself on the cusp of a strong phase of growth backed by digitization and increased consumer demand. Following are the key triggers that we think will make M&E the sunrise sector of our economic growth:

Summary:

  • The Indian M&E industry which is valued at close to $20 Billion is expected to reach $29-30 Billion by 2019 and more than $62-63 Billion by 2025. This year, it registered a growth of close to 13.5% over its value in 2015.
  • The industry is divided into 9 segments. Their growth since the past 6 years and the future prospects are as follows:
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Indian Pharmaceuticals Industry: Still A Good Bet?

Indian Pharma has emerged as one of the most disruptive and profit making industries. It still has the legs to grow exponentially, but will have to watch out for the regulatory interventions that are on a rise since the last 15 odd months. Have a look at some of the key points that will help the industry to up the ante:

Summary:

  • The Indian Pharmaceutical market has been on a roll since the last 2-3 decades and has witnessed the kind of growth that no other sector has experienced.
  • The sector is currently valued at around $25-27 Billion ~ 3% of the global pharmaceutical industry in terms of value and 10% in terms of volume. It is poised to reach $55 Billion in the next 4 years.
  • The Generic Drugs segment dominates the market with a 70% share in terms of revenues making it the largest segment in the Indian pharmaceutical sector. Similarly, Over-The-Counter (OTC) medicines constitute close to 21% and Patented Drugs occupy the remaining 9% of the total market.
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Investor, Trader, Philanthropist & a Flamboyant All-in-One Man - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

That’s right, India’s most successful equity investor, our very own Warren Buffet - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, who made a whopping $1.93 Billion starting from a meager $100 is apt for these diverse and contradicting adjectives. But why? People often ask him, which company will be the next Titan or CRISIL, and as he always does, he responds to such questions with raillery. With an uncommon intelligence and a thing for horses, we bring you an...

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Indian Chemical Industry : The Next Big Thing!

The Indian Chemical Industry is one of the most established and fast growing sectors of our country. It plays an integral role in our economic development thereby serving as a critical input for the industrial and agricultural development. This sector has always witnessed considerable growth in the past and is currently poised to further this momentum Here are some of the most important triggers that we think will help its cause:

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RBI cuts Repo Rate by 25 bps: Your EMIs may ‘actually’ come down further

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) yesterday cut the Repo Rate by a further 25 basis points to bring it down to 6.50% at the first bi-monthly monetary policy meeting of the fiscal year. This revised rate is at its lowest in more than five years. The aim was to ease the liquidity constraints in the banking system, giving hopes for the industry and consumers that interest rates in the economy will fall faster than earlier. RBI chief Raghuram Rajan at the post-meet press conference said, “Further monetary policy decisions will be driven by outcome of the monsoon, monetary policy transmission, trajectory of core inflation.”

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Why Trade Intraday? Go To Las Vegas Instead!!!

Everyone wants to earn money and that too quickly. Let me tell you a best-case scenario:

  • You wake up in the morning all excited about the money you are going to make via day-trading.
  • You get in front of your system sharp at 09:00 am.
  • You make a trade of Rs. 20,000 with a 5X exposure at 09:15 am.
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Resturant-Employer

I’m sure everyone is aware of the relentless decline in oil prices that 2015 has witnessed. Brent crude and WTI have plunged from around $60/barrel last Christmas to below $30/barrel a year later. What analysts are now looking at is whether the commodity is set to rebound in 2016 or is there worse to come? Note that, the prices did recover to some extent a few times last year, but they think that it will be years before it returns to the $90-100/barrel price band, which has pretty much been the norm over the last decade...

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When To Buy A Stock – The GREAT PARADOX!
New Products and New Management - How do they facilitate stock price movements?
P/E Ratios: Look at them Like an Analyst!!!
High Priced And Super High Priced Stocks – Don't Just Ignore Them...
Having a Diversified Stock Portfolio a Lottt More Than You Think!!!
Annual Earnings: Look For Big Growth
How To Look At Those Quarterly Earnings Announcements Before Making Your Decisions???
CUT those LOSERS & RIDE the WINNERS!!!
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