StockAxis

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd

Quarterly Result - Q3FY24

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd

Automobiles - Passenger Cars

Current

CMP
Rs. 1893.90
Rating:
Hold
February 14, 2024

Previous

Rating:
Hold

Stock Info

BSE
500520
NSE
M%26M
Bloomberg
MM:IN
Reuters
MAHM.NS
Sector
Automobiles - Passenger Cars
Face Value (Rs)
5
Equity Capital (Rs cr)
557
Mkt Cap (Rs cr)
235804.15
52w H/L (Rs)
1758.00 - 1123.40
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE)
2,295,173

Shareholding Pattern

(as on 31-Dec)
%
Promoter
19.33
FIIs
40.86
DIIs
26.26
Public & Others
13.55
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Price performance

Return (%)
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
1.32
7.39
21.62
Sensex
-2.05
9.36
17.68
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Indexed Stock Performance

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd Sensex
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Financial Highlights:

Particulars Q3FY24 Q3FY23 YoY (%) Q2FY24 QoQ (%)
Revenue 25642.00 22113.00 16.00% 25773.00 -1.00%
EBITDA 3590.00 3274.00 10.00% 4398.00 -18.00%
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.00% 15.00% -5.00% 17.00% -18.00%
PAT 2454.00 1528.00 61.00% 3453.00 -29.00%

Source: Company Filings; StockAxis Research

Q3FY24 Financial Performance
Mahindra & Mahindra Group delivered strong earnings growth in Q3FY24. Auto continues to gain market share. Farm market share improves despite decline in Industry. Financial services continue its strong performance on asset quality with record low GS3. Mahindra & Mahindra standalone revenue grew by 16% YoY to Rs 25,642 Crores as against Rs 22,113 Crores for the same quarter of the previous year, with automotive segment volumes growing 20% YoY at 2.1 lakh units & tractor sales volume at 1 lakh units (down 4% YoY). Volume grew by 11% YoY. Standalone EBITDA jumped 10% YoY, leading to an EBITDA margin of 14% driven by increasing farm segment’s revenue contribution. Domestic tractor industry is expected to decline owing to muted demand and inventory correction. Despite decline in industry M&Ms market share improved by 80bps YoY to 41.8% led by new launches and network expansion.

The substantial UV order book stands healthy at 226,000 units and the prospective launch pipeline looks promising. This includes the XUV300 refresh, Thar five-door variant and dedicated platform EVs, ensuring a robust foundation for significant growth. Farm EBIT margin contracted 80bp to 15.5%, led by lower volume and higher marketing spends. Automotive volumes stood at 2.1 lakh units up 20% on a YoY basis, driven by strong growth in its PV segment supported by new launches like the XUV 700, Scorpio N, and Thar.

Management anticipates approximately 10% decline in tractor volumes for the upcoming Q4FY24, attributed to a higher comparative base from the previous year driven by Navratra. Nonetheless, the outlook for medium-term volumes appears optimistic, propelled by increased government spending on agriculture, favourable rainfall conditions, and improving income levels. Despite potential delays in tractor exports due to the ongoing Red Sea crisis, the company foresees minimal impact unless the situation prolongs significantly.

Key Conference Call Takeaways

Tractor/Farm Equipment Segment

  • For FY24E it expects domestic tractor industry to decline by 5% on YoY basis with Q4FY24 decline pegged at 10%.
  • The southern state has always been a strong market for Swaraj and Mahindra tractors, as this market have demand for high horsepower tractor, providing higher margins to the company. Degrowth witnessed in the southern market had affected the sales of tractors as well as the margin profile.
  • The terms of trade for farmers have improved which coupled with higher rural spending by the government should help lift tractor volumes.

Automotive segment

  • On the SUV side its orderbook stands healthy at 226k units with aspiration to grow mid to high teens in FY25E amidst domestic PV industry growth pegged at <5%.
  • Capacity addition as per plan, M&M is on track to augment its SUV capacity to 49k units by end of Q4FY24.
  • M&M want to lower the waiting period for customers. Cancellation rate has reverted back to the normal levels of ~8% for January’24 vs. ~10% witnessed for Nov’23 and Dec’23 due to impending year end VIN change.
  • It expects Q4 sales run-rate to be flat due to the XUV 300 ramp-down for midcycle enhancement and variant-level production constraints.
  • M&M would want to market its lower variants of XUV700 aggressively in times to come, as all initial booking were for higher variants.
  • M&M witnessed recovery in Truck & Bus market and currently holds ~2-3% market share with aim for ~10% market share and expects it to grow to INR 100bn top-line business by increasing market share.
  • PLI Scheme M&M application for PLI is approved for its last mile mobility (LMM) arm while expects to receive the same in Q2FY25 for the Electric PV arm post meeting the localisation norms.
  • Electric UV - Management expects the XUV 400 to reach a 25% share in its compact eSUV category.
  • Electric 3W - Competition has increased in this segment, although the company holds a 59.5% market share in YTD FY24. MM believes e-3W will be a strong growth segment.
  • New launches: The Company remains mindful of ICE variants. New upgrade launches for this year are the Thar 5D and the refreshed XUV 300. Management believes it has adequate products which can fill the white space of the earlier XUV 500.
  • LCV Industry - M&M expects domestic LCV industry to be largely flattish for FY24E, however it has improved market share in this category.
  • Mahindra plans to launch five all electric SUVs in India based on its new, purpose-built electric platform INGLO, starting December 2024.

Outlook & valuation

M&M delivered earnings growth above street estimates for the quarter ended Q3FY24 driven by growth in the automotive division. Its EV projects are on track. We believe the auto segment is expected to drive its operating performance in the coming years due to increasing volumes going ahead. Consistent demand in its automotive division especially for its utility vehicles will drive the volume higher for the company while new launches in the LCV. Tractor industry to decline 5% in FY24 while positive growth is anticipated in FY25 due to expectations of normal monsoon and timing of festive period. The company has been consistently improving its market share across divisions, indicating healthy response for products and strong execution of its strategy. Further, traction in its EV business in the passenger vehicle and LCV segment shall provide the next leg of growth for the company. With a favourable demand scenario in the Auto Division, a healthy order book in the PV segment, Production ramp-up, market leadership in the tractor segment, the opportunity to grow in the farm machinery segment, and its road map to play the EV space, M&M is poised to deliver strong growth in the coming years. At CMP of Rs 1,846, the stock is currently valued at 22x it FY25E EPS. We maintain a HOLD rating on the stock.

Quarterly Financials

Particulars Q3FY24 Q3FY23 YoY (%) Q2FY24 QoQ (%)
Revenue 25642.00 22113.00 16.00% 25773.00 -1.00%
COGS 19066.00 16447.00 16.00% 18379.00 4.00%
Gross Profit 6576.00 5666.00 16.00% 7394.00 -11.00%
Gross Profit margin (%) 26.00% 26.00% 0.00% 29.00% -11.00%
Employee Benefit Expense 1134.00 934.00 21.00% 1126.00 1.00%
Other Expense 1852.00 1458.00 27.00% 1738.00 7.00%
Loss from Investment in Subsidiaries 132.00
EBITDA 3590.00 3274.00 10.00% 4398.00 -18.00%
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.00% 15.00% -5.00% 17.00% -18.00%
Depreciation and Amortisation 818.00 829.00 -1.00% 816.00 0.00%
EBIT 2772.00 2445.00 13.00% 3582.00 -23.00%
EBIT Margin (%) 11.00% 11.00% -2.00% 14.00% -22.00%
Finance Cost 35.00 69.00 -50.00% 33.00 6.00%
Other Income 383.00 211.00 81.00% 819.00 -53.00%
Profit before share of associates 3121.00 2587.00 21.00% 4368.00 -29.00%
Exceptional Items - -629.00
PBT 3121.00 1958.00 59.00% 4368.00 -29.00%
Tax -667.00 -430.00 55.00% -915.00 -27.00%
PAT 2454.00 1528.00 61.00% 3453.00 -29.00%
PAT Margin (%) 10.00% 7.00% 43.00% 14.00% -29.00%
EPS (Rs) 20.47 12.76 60.00% 28.80 -29.00%

Source: Company Filings; StockAxis Research