stockaxis

Ircon International Ltd

Quarterly Result - Q4FY24

Ircon International Ltd

Engineering - Rail Construction

Current

CMP
Rs. 286.95
Rating:
Hold
May 21, 2024

Previous

Rating:
Hold

Stock Info

BSE
541956
NSE
IRCON
Bloomberg
IRCON:IN
Reuters
IRCN.NS
Sector
Engineering - Rail Construction
Face Value (Rs)
2
Equity Capital (Rs cr)
188
Mkt Cap (Rs cr)
25356.30
52w H/L (Rs)
280.85 - 77.45
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE)
22,726,644

Shareholding Pattern

(as on 31-Mar)
%
Promoter
65.17
FIIs
4.58
DIIs
1.31
Public & Others
28.92
Source: Ace equity, stockaxis Research

Price performance

Return (%)
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
30.32
27.17
253.25
Sensex
0.41
1.83
19.35
Source: Ace equity, stockaxis Research

Indexed Stock Performance

Ircon International Ltd Sensex
Ircon International Ltd
Source: Ace equity, stockaxis Research

Financial Highlights:

Particulars Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY % Q3FY24 QoQ%
Total revenue from operations 3743.00 3781.00 -1.00% 2884.00 30.00%
Core EBITDA 286.00 183.00 4.00% 213.00 -8.00%
EBIDTA Margin % 7.64% 5.00% 264 bps 7.39% 25 bps
PAT 247.00 256.00 -4.00% 245.00 1.00%
EPS (Rs.) 2.62 2.73 -4.00% 2.60 1.00%

Source: Company Filings; stockaxis Research

Q4FY24 Result Highlights
Ircon International delivered weak earnings for the quarter ended Q4FY24. In Q4FY24, IRCON's revenue declined by 1% YoY to Rs 3,743 crores from Rs 3,781 crores in Q4FY23. However, core EBITDA improved by 4% to Rs.286 crores. EBITDA margin stood at 7.64%, an expansion of 264 bps in Q4FY24, while PAT declined by ~4% YoY, to Rs.247 crores. Order book stood at Rs.27,208 cr as on March 31, 2024. Share of orders won on competitive bidding basis is about 49% of the total order book

Conference Call Highlights
Order Book

  • As of March 31, 2024, IRCON's order book amounted to Rs 27,208 crores. Approximately 49% of these orders were secured through competitive bidding. The order book composition included highways orders worth Rs.5964 crores (22% of total), railways orders worth Rs.21,158 crores (77.8%), and other orders standing at Rs 86 crores (0.3%). The majority of orders, 91%, were from domestic markets, with the remaining 9% from international markets.
  • IRCON is expecting its order book to grow substantially, potentially matching its revenue for FY25. The company is eagerly anticipating the release of bids and tenders post-election results. Additionally, IRCON expects to secure more orders once the government approves additional high-speed corridors. Currently, IRCON and Larsen & Toubro are the only companies with credentials for the High-Speed Rail Project.
  • Mix between competitive bidding and nomination orders is almost 50-50.

Future Growth:

  • IRCON anticipates flat revenue growth for both FY25 and FY26. However, if the company receives order inflow of Rs 10000-15000 crores during FY25, there is a possibility of achieving a 10% revenue growth in FY26.
  • IRCON aims to double its revenue from Rs 10,000 crores to Rs 20,000 crores over the next four to five years.
  • EBITDA margins the margins will be maintained at same level, & PAT margins will be maintained at around 7-7.5% for FY25.
  • A cash outflow of Rs 500 crores is expected in FY25, primarily for renewable projects. IRCON has already infused Rs 112 crores and plans to invest an additional Rs 89 crores in FY25, with the entire share coming from IRCON itself.
  • In FY24, IRCON received an order inflow of Rs 1000 crores, including Rs.600 crores project for the Aizawl Tunnel, Rs.120 crores project for a Signaling project in Imphal, and several smaller projects. Although the order inflow for the year was somewhat subdued, the company anticipates that it will pick up pace from Q2FY25.

Projects:

  • The share of high-speed projects in the current order book is around 20%, totaling Rs 5200 crores. IRCON has executed orders worth Rs 1000 crores in this segment. The company aims to open the first stretch in FY25-26, the second stretch in FY27, and complete the full line by FY28.
  • Revenue from bullet train and Myanmar projects anticipated to be spread over a three to four year period.

Subsidiaries and Joint Ventures

  • IRCON has 11 subsidiaries, primarily focused on renewable power and roads.
  • The company also has seven joint venture companies, primarily dedicated to coal connectivity projects.
  • IRCON's cumulative equity infusion in joint ventures and special purpose vehicles (SPVs) amounted to approximately Rs 2000-2200 crores. The company plans to inject additional Rs 1000 crores over the next two years, primarily for highway and road projects.

Working Capital and Funding

  • IRCON does not anticipate needing to raise funds for working capital in the near future.
  • Surplus funds are expected to be invested in equity investments for PPP projects.

Competition and Market Share

  • Facing competition from subcontractors in pure civil work but maintaining an edge in projects requiring design, planning, and technical expertise.

Challenges and Risks

  • Potential risks from subcontractors outbidding in future projects.
  • Need to carefully manage working capital requirements to avoid impact on revenue.

Outlook & Valuation Top of Form

IRCON's Q4FY24 result was lower than estimate. The company's operating performance was weak, with a 1% decline in revenue and a flat QoQ adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.2%. The reported PAT includes a one-time gain of Rs66 cr from prior period claims. IRCON expects its revenue growth to be flat on a YoY basis in FY25, while maintaining the same level of EBITDA margins. Ircon order book is slowing, and its order book has declined to Rs 27200 cr in FY24 from Rs 35100 cr YoY. This will result in lower revenue & profit growth in FY25 & FY26. Ircon stands to benefit from favorable long-term prospects, thanks to the government's unwavering commitment to enhancing railway infrastructure. Acquiring new orders is essential for the reevaluation of stock. At a CMP of Rs. 271, the stock is trading at 27x FY26E. We recommend a HOLD rating on the stock.

Consolidated Financial statements

Profit & Loss statement

Particulars Q4FY24 Q4FY23 YoY % Q3FY24 QoQ%
Total revenue from operations 3743.00 3781.00 -1.00% 2884.00 30.00%
Total Expenses (Excluding Depreciation and Finance cost) 3457.00 3598.00 -5.00% 2671.00 29.00%
Core EBITDA 286.00 183.00 4.00% 213.00 -8.00%
EBIDTA Margin % 7.64% 5.00% 264 bps 7.39% 25 bps
Depreciation exp 27.00 36.00 -24.00% 27.00 0.00%
EBIT 259.00 147.00 76.00% 186.00 39.00%
Finance cost 41.00 33.00 23.00% 37.00 10.00%
Other income 151.00 173.00 -13.00% 128.00 19.00%
Profit(Loss) from operations before Share of Profit(Loss) of Joint Ventures, Exceptional items and tax 370.00 287.00 29.00% 277.00 34.00%
Share of Profit(Loss) of Joint Ventures -14.00 13.00 -202.00% 37.00 -137.00%
PBT 356.00 301.00 18.00% 314.00 13.00%
Tax 109.00 44.00 147.00% 69.00 58.00%
PAT 247.00 256.00 -4.00% 245.00 1.00%
PAT Margin 7.00% 7.00% (19) bps 8.00% (189) bps
EPS (Rs.) 2.62 2.73 -4.00% 2.60 1.00%