stockaxis

Hero MotoCorp Ltd

Quarterly Result - Q2FY25

Hero MotoCorp Ltd

Automobile Two & Three Wheelers

Current

CMP
Rs. 4850.10
Rating:
Hold
November 14, 2024

Previous

Rating:
Hold

Stock Info

BSE
500182
NSE
HEROMOTOCO
Bloomberg
HMCL:IN
Reuters
HROM.NS
Sector
Automobile Two & Three Wheelers
Face Value (Rs)
2
Equity Capital (Rs cr)
40
Mkt Cap (Rs cr)
96776.77
52w H/L (Rs)
6246.25 - 3130.10
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE)
124,529

Shareholding Pattern

(as on 30-Sep)
%
Promoter
34.75
FIIs
29.59
DIIs
26.94
Public & Others
8.72
Source: Ace equity, stockaxis Research

Price performance

Return (%)
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
-17.11
-9.26
44.92
Sensex
-5.36
-1.93
18.13
Source: Ace equity, stockaxis Research

Indexed Stock Performance

Hero MotoCorp Ltd Sensex
Hero MotoCorp Ltd
Source: Ace equity, stockaxis Research

Financial Highlights:

Particulars (in Rs. Cr) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY(%) Q1FY25 QoQ(%)
Revenue from operations 10463.00 9445.00 11.00% 10144.00 3.00%
EBITDA 1516.00 1329.00 14.00% 1460.00 4.00%
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.49% 14.07% 42 bps 14.39% 10 bps
PAT 1203.00 1054.00 14.00% 1123.00 7.00%
EPS (Rs.) 60.18 52.72 14.00% 56.15 7.00%

Source: Company Filings; stockaxis Research

Q2FY25 Result Highlights
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) delivered better than expected earnings in Q2FY25. Blended EBITDA Margins saw a YoY improvement in a sustained recovery, driven by improved rural demand, significant market share gains, and a ramp-up in the 125cc segment.

Total Sales volume grew ~7% YoY and ~4% QoQ to 15.2 lakh units. The company is yet to surpass its peak annual volume of 64 lakh units achieved in FY20.

Standalone revenue from operations grew 11% YoY and 3% QoQ, on the back of a 7.3% YoY increase in volumes and a 3.3% YoY increase in ASPs. Gross margins improved 188 bps YoY to 33.3%.Sharp expansion in gross margin was partly offset by negative operating leverage. The company reported an improvement in gross margins due to a favourable product mix, lower material costs, and internal savings. EBITDA grew by 14% YoY and 4% QoQ to Rs.1516 cr while maintaining margins above FY24 levels of ~14-14.5%. PAT stood at Rs.1203 cr, up 14% YoY.

Key Conference call takeaways
Guidance:
i) Raw material costs will remain in a range, as per management expectations, ii) Capex forecast for FY25 remains at Rs.1000-1200cr, (iii) EBITDA margin guided in the range of 14-16%.

Key Takeaways:
Festive Sales
The company delivered record sales during the festive season, selling 1.6 million units, contributing to a 16% revenue growth over those 32 days.The management remains optimistic about the future, citing positive macroeconomic factors and the potential for increased participation from the low-income group.

Market Share
HeroMotoCorp’s market share as per Vahan data improved to 31.6% during the festive period.

For EVs, Hero achieved a 20% market share in five cities and a 10% market share in ten cities.

Demand

  • 2W Demand on the rural side has picked up, contributing significantly to Hero’s overall sales.
  • Share of inquiries from rural areas has increased significantly on a year-on-year basis.
  • Consumer sentiment during the festive period was strong and is expected to continue to remain so.

Exports

  • Exports saw robust growth during H1FY25, growing 30% YoY during the periodand increasing their global market share to 6.1%
  • Entered new markets within SouthEast Asia such as the Philippines.

Product Launches

  • Within the next six months, three new premium motorcycles—the Xpulse 210, Xtreme 250R, and Karizma XMR 250—are set to be launched.
  • Scooter Segment: Three new ICE scooter models will be introduced by March 2025, alongside an expansion of the VIDA electric scooter lineup to cover all price segments.

Distribution

  • Hero Premia stores: 58 are currently operational under this premium format. The aim is to exceed 100 operational stores by the end of the year.

Future Strategy

  • Continued Premiumization: There's a strong focus on expanding the premium portfolio with new models and enhancing the Premia store network.
  • New Model Launches: Launch of premium motorcycle models, ICE and EV scooter models over the next 6 months to one year.
  • EV Capex: Hero remains committed to investing in the EV sector to achieve cost leadership and scalability.
  • Focus on Parts & Accessories Business: Continued focus on developing the parts business, with an emphasis on scaling up accessories and merchandising.

Outlook & valuation

Hero MotoCorp delivered better than expected earnings in Q2FY25. With a slew of new products lined up and a focus on the premium motorcycle segment, the company has demonstrated strong traction in its business, given the recovery in the two-wheeler segment. HMCL’s recovery in EBITDA margin suggests it has the headroom to stimulate demand in its key markets for entry-level products. The company is focusing on premiumization, expanding its EV business, and focusing on top-10 export markets. The company is also making in-roads in the premium bike segment in partnership with Harley Davidson. Operating leverage, price hikes, and cost-saving under the leap program would result in margin improvement. HMCL is expected to reach its historical margin of 14-16%.

The company expects double-digit revenue growth for the two-wheeler industry in FY2025 and has been guided to grow ahead of the industry due to its product launch strategies and, hence, a hope of market share gain. Premiumization in individual sub-segments would drive the two-wheeler segment’s revenue performance in the coming years as customer aspirations in each of the sub-segments have been rising. Management has shared an optimistic outlook for the upcoming festive season and indicated that its 125 cc products are receiving a healthy response in the market leading to enhanced capacities for the Xtreme 125 cc motorcycle.By offering a wider range of premium products and an enhanced customer experience, HMCL aims to capture a larger share of the growing premium two-wheeler market.

Exports to emerging markets present a huge opportunity (~2x that of the Indian market) for HMCL given that it has a relatively smaller presence in exports so far. HMCL has doubled its target export markets to 40 countries over the past few years. Over the years, HMCL has been working on launching new products customized to key markets, revamping its distribution network, and investing in brand building in key markets. We expect exports to continue to be a steady growth driver for HMCL in the coming years. We believe that the company is well positioned to benefit from the adoption of electric 2W vehicles through its strong R&D and investments in Ather Energy, We remain positive on the company’s growth prospects. At a CMP of Rs.4862, the stock is trading at 18x FY26E. We maintain a HOLD rating on the stock.

Standalone Financial statements

Profit & Loss statement

Particulars (in Rs. Cr) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY(%) Q1FY25 QoQ(%)
Revenue from operations 10463.00 9445.00 11.00% 10144.00 3.00%
COGS 6979.00 6477.00 8.00% 6867.00 2.00%
Gross Profit 3484.00 2968.00 17.00% 3277.00 6.00%
Gross Margin (%) 33.30% 31.42% 188 bps 32.30% 80 bps
Employee Benefit Expenses 654.00 577.00 13.00% 608.00 8.00%
Other expenses 1314.00 1062.00 24.00% 1209.00 9.00%
EBITDA 1516.00 1329.00 14.00% 1460.00 4.00%
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.49% 14.07% 42 bps 14.39% 10 bps
Depreciation expenses 194.00 175.00 11.00% 193.00 1.00%
EBIT 1322.00 1154.00 15.00% 1267.00 4.00%
Finance cost 5.00 5.00 0.00% 5.00 0.00%
Other Income 283.00 248.00 14.00% 232.00 22.00%
PBT 1600.00 1397.00 15.00% 1494.00 7.00%
Tax expenses 397.00 343.00 16.00% 371.00 7.00%
PAT 1203.00 1054.00 14.00% 1123.00 7.00%
EPS (Rs.) 60.18 52.72 14.00% 56.15 7.00%