StockAxis

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd

Quarterly Result - Q2FY23

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd

Sugar

Current

CMP
Rs. 375.65
Rating:
Hold
November 09, 2022

Previous

Rating:
Hold

Stock Info

BSE
500038
NSE
BALRAMCHIN
Bloomberg
BRCM:IN
Reuters
BACH
Sector
Sugar
Face Value (Rs)
1
Equity Capital (Rs cr)
20
Mkt Cap (Rs cr)
7533.08
52w H/L (Rs)
525.90 - 299.00
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE)
4,534,807

Shareholding Pattern

(as on 30-Sep)
%
Promoter
42.42
FIIs
15.27
DIIs
18.20
Public & Others
24.11
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Price performance

Return (%)
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
-8.05
-0.56
0.66
Sensex
5.25
3.77
0.99
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Indexed Stock Performance

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd Sensex
Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Financial Highlights:

Particulars (Rs. in cr) Q2FY23 Q2FY22 Y-o-Y (%) Q1FY23 Q-o-Q(%)
Revenue from Operations 1113.00 1214.00 -8.00% 1080.00 3.00%
EBITDA -16.00 135.00 45.00
EBITDA Margin (%) -1.00% 11.00% 4.00%
Profit After Tax -29.00 84.00 14.00 -307.00%
EPS -1.42 3.96 0.60

Source: Company Filings; StockAxis Research

Quarterly result highlights Q2FY23
Balrampur Chini reported dismal results for the quarter ended Q2FY23. Consolidated revenues witnessed a de-growth of 8% at Rs.1113 cr on account of lower cane availability and lower recovery witnessed during the season 2021-22. The company posted EBITDA loss of (-16 cr) due to lower sales, increase in cost of production and one-off spends on account of wages. Due to weak revenue performance and loss at the operating level, company reported an overall loss of Rs.29 cr.

Conference call highlights

  • Sugar sales de-grew 1% to Rs.936.2 cr. The company received domestic sugar sale quota of 2.5 lakh tonnes, 6% lower compared to the corresponding period last year. Sugar realization was up 3.2% to Rs.35.65/kg.
  • The company was holding 1.19 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar valued at Rs.34.82 per kg as on September 30, 2022, vs. 1.88 lt valued at Rs.33.01 per kg on September 30, 2021.
  • Distillery sales declined 14% to Rs.229.9 crore on the back of 10.7% degrowth in ethanol volumes and 1% dip in ethanol realization. Since, the company saw a considerable decline in sugarcane crushed in 2021-22 season, molasses availability was also adversely impacted resulting in lower ethanol volumes.
  • Cane availability for the company in the current year (SS 22-23) is estimated to be 15% to 20% higher than last year, ~10.25 crore quintal to ~10.5 crore quintal, from 8.88 cr quintal last year.
  • Disease management, introduction of new variety is expected to result in higher sugarcane yield as well as sugar recoveries.
  • On the distillery business, Capex plan for the Distillery segment is on schedule and will significantly augment capacity to 880 KLPD by November2022& finally to 1050 KLPD, resulting in total ethanol distillation of capacity of ~35 crore liters annually, including 5 crore from grain.
  • Company says that Q4 will be the best quarter in terms of the seasonality. As far as the Q3 goes, they mentioned in the presentation as well, they have got an export quota of 1.98 lakh tonnes. Out of that 1.4 lakh tonnes have already been contracted for physical export. And they have sold quota of 56,000 tonnes. Some portion of same will accrue in Q3.
  • Out of total sugarcane crushed, ~10% would be diverted to sugarcane juice route, ~18-20% would be required for ENA obligation and rest 70-72% would be diverted to B-heavy molasses. The company would be able to produce 28-30 crore litres of ethanol/ENA from molasses/juice route. Further, 5-6 crore litres of ethanol would be produced through grain-based ethanol in 2022-23 season.
  • The company is expected to produce ~35 crore litres of ethanol/ENA in FY24E. We estimate 33% of the total revenues would be contributed by the distillery segment by FY24.
  • The company has announced an open market buyback for an amount not exceeding Rs.145.4 cr at a share price not exceeding Rs.360/share.
  • OMCs are looking to reach ethanol blending of 12% in 2022-23 procurement year, which would result in ~550 crore litre of ethanol procurement. Most of these quantities would be supplies by the sugar industry.
  • The government has increased ethanol prices between Rs.1.65 per litre to Rs. 2.65 per litre for different feedstock. This would further encourage millers to set up distillery capacity in future.

Outlook & valuation

Balrampur Chini mills Limited (BCML) reported tepid earnings for the quarter ended Q2FY23, but we believe that higher sugarcane availability in its catchment area, expected improvement in sugar recovery, increase in blended realization due to refined sugar exports and commissioning of large distillery capacity would improve earnings trajectory for the company in the coming quarters. We remain positive on the sugar industry and Balrampur Chini.

At CMP of Rs.329 as on November 09, 2022, the stock is trading at 9x FY25E and we maintain hold on the stock.

Quarterly Financials

Particulars (Rs. in cr) Q2FY23 Q2FY22 Y-o-Y (%) Q1FY23 Q-o-Q(%)
Revenue from Operations 1113.00 1214.00 -8.00% 1080.00 3.00%
COGS 966.00 932.00 890.00
Gross Profit 147.00 282.00 190.00 -23.00%
Gross Margin (%) 13.00% 23.00% 18.00%
Employee Benefit Expenses 95.00 71.00 74.00
Other Expenses 68.00 76.00 71.00
EBITDA -16.00 135.00 45.00
EBITDA Margin (%) -1.00% 11.00% 4.00%
Depreciation and Amortization 28.00 28.00 28.00
EBIT -44.00 107.00 17.00
Other Income 12.00 4.00 14.00
Finance Cost 8.00 6.00 13.00
Share of profit of associates 3.00 2.00 1.00
Profit Before Tax -37.00 107.00 19.00 -295.00%
Tax Expenses -8.00 23.00 5.00
Effective Tax Rate (%) 22.00% 21.00% 26.00%
Profit After Tax -29.00 84.00 14.00 -307.00%
PAT Margin (%) -3.00% 7.00% 1.00%
EPS -1.42 3.96 0.60

Source: Company Filings; StockAxis Research

Consolidated Financial statements

Profit & Loss statement

Year End March (Rs. in Crores) 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Net Sales 4811.70 4846.00 5389.00 6272.60 7215.60
Growth % 1.50% 0.70% 11.20% 16.40% 15.00%
Expenditure
Material Cost 3494.90 3494.90 3907.00 4484.90 5123.10
Employee Cost 281.60 307.80 339.50 401.40 469.00
EBITDA 712.80 699.30 776.00 966.00 1154.50
Growth % 4.50% -1.90% 11.00% 24.50% 19.50%
EBITDA Margin 14.80% 14.40% 14.40% 15.40% 16.00%
Depreciation & Amortization 111.90 113.90 129.30 149.30 164.30
EBIT 600.90 585.50 646.70 816.70 1040.20
EBIT Margin % 12.50% 12.10% 12.00% 13.00% 14.00%
Other Income 27.90 33.40 37.00 44.00 50.00
Interest & Finance Charges 39.30 30.90 31.50 26.80 29.60
Profit Before Tax 589.60 586.80 652.20 833.90 1010.60
Tax Expense 129.40 134.10 164.20 209.90 254.40
Effective Tax rate 21.90% 22.90% 25.20% 25.20% 25.00%
Net Profit 460.20 452.70 488.00 624.00 756.20
Net Profit Margin 9.60% 9.30% 9.10% 9.90% 10.00%
Consolidated Net Profit 479.80 464.60 488.00 624.00 756.20

Balance Sheet

As of March (Rs. in Crores) 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Share Capital 21.00 20.40 20.40 20.40 20.40
Total Reserves 2598.10 2749.30 3237.40 3861.40 4617.60
Shareholders' Funds 2619.10 2769.70 3257.80 3881.80 4638.00
Non-Current Liabilities
Long Term Burrowing 242.30 144.20 349.80 252.80 192.80
Deferred Tax Assets / Liabilities 64.00 75.50 75.50 75.50 75.50
Long Term Provisions 582.50 569.00 569.00 569.00 569.00
Current Liabilities -
Short Term Borrowings 891.40 959.90 959.90 959.90 959.90
Trade Payables 596.40 308.30 378.60 431.30 480.40
Other Current Liabilities 199.00 214.90 109.30 109.30 109.30
Short Term Provisions 5.40 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70
Total Equity & Liabilities 5208.30 5051.40 5709.70 6289.40 7034.80
Assets -
Net Block 1598.60 1633.60 2004.30 2155.00 2290.70
Non-Current Investments 249.20 172.60 172.60 172.60 172.60
Long Term Loans & Advances 589.80 660.80 660.80 660.80 660.80
Current Assets
Currents Investments - - - - -
Inventories 2378.50 2200.50 2411.50 2779.60 3325.90
Sundry Debtors 245.50 136.70 196.30 255.60 332.60
Cash and Bank 2.80 3.30 20.00 22.00 8.40
Short Term Loans and Advances 18.30 24.60 24.60 24.60 24.60
Total Assets 5208.30 5051.40 5709.40 6289.40 7034.70

Cash Flow Statement

Year End March (Rs. in Crores) 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Profit After Tax 460.20 452.70 488.00 624.00 756.20
Depreciation 111.90 113.90 129.30 149.30 164.30
Changes in Working Capital -33.70 76.20 -200.30 -374.60 -574.20
Cash From Operating Activities 649.20 694.70 417.00 398.70 346.40
Purchase of Fixed Assets -100.90 -404.10 -500.00 -300.00 -300.00
Free Cash Flows 548.30 290.60 -83.00 98.70 46.40
Cash Flow from Investing Activities -81.10 -309.40 -500.00 -300.00 -300.00
Increase / (Decrease) in Loan Funds -250.70 -37.10 100.00 -97.00 -60.00
Cash from Financing Activities -569.10 -385.40 100.00 -97.00 -60.00
Net Cash Inflow / Outflow -1.00 -0.10 17.00 1.70 -13.60
Opening Cash & Cash Equivalents 1.50 0.40 0.30 17.40 19.10
Closing Cash & Cash Equivalent 0.40 0.30 17.40 19.10 5.50

Key Ratios

Year End March 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E
Basic EPS 22.80 22.80 23.90 30.60 37.10
Diluted EPS 22.80 22.80 23.90 30.60 37.10
Book value (Rs/share) 124.70 135.70 159.70 190.20 227.30
ROCE (%) Post Tax 13.00% 13.00% 12.00% 13.00% 10.00%
ROE (%) 18.00% 17.00% 15.00% 16.00% 20.00%
Inventory Days 172.40 172.00 175.00 180.00 154.80
Receivable Days 14.40 14.00 17.00 18.00 15.30
Payable Days 34.10 26.00 28.00 26.00 23.50
PE 9.40 21.50 13.80 10.80 8.90
P/BV 1.70 3.60 2.10 1.70 1.40
EV/EBITDA 8.10 16.00 10.30 8.20 6.80
P/Sales 0.90 2.10 1.20 1.10 0.90
Net debt/Equity 0.50 0.40 0.40 0.30 0.20
Net Debt/ EBITDA 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.30 1.00