Company Profile
Incorporated in January 2016, Arvind Fashions Ltd (AFL) is a lifestyle powerhouse
with a strong portfolio of fashion brands that serve customers across sub-categories
and price points. The company is India's top casual and denim player. It has
presence in well known lifestyle brands (both domestic and foreign) such as US Polo
Assn., Arrow, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, Flying Machine, and Sephora.
Part of Arvind Lalbhai Group with Experienced and Qualified Management:
AFL is a part of the Arvind Lalbhai group, which was established in 1931. The organization
is a multifaceted conglomerate with operations in the textile, apparel retail, engineering,
wastewater treatment, and real estate sectors. Arvind Ltd. is one of India's
top vertically integrated textile companies with a presence since more than eight
decades. AFL was separately listed after its de-merger from Arvind. The Lalbhai
family holds the largest stake in AFL (36.5% of Promoter Holding as of August
2022).
Strong Brand Portfolio of Owned and Licensed Global Clothing Brands:
The portfolio of AFL is positioned across a range of price points and fashion trends,
with a focus on casual wear. The licenses with international brands are long term/perpetual
in nature. In order to increase profitability, AFL decided to focus on its six key
brands and discontinued many loss-making brands in recent years. For the overall
increase in profitability, the performance of the Arrow brand must improve. In the
medium term, the management intends to boost sales of kids' clothing, innerwear,
footwear, and beauty products in order to increase demographic presence.
Deeper Penetration & Store Expansion:
AFL will invest to scale up the adjacencies across footwear (3.6x growth vs. pre-COVID)
, kids wear, inner wear, and women wear. With strong rebound in footfalls across
retail channel, AFL will accelerate store network expansion across brands and markets
by opening ~200 stores in ongoing fiscal year; the focus would be to add stores
in Tier-II and Tier-III cities. Further, it is building scalable omni-channel model
with higher contribution of direct-to-consumer helping drive higher customer loyalty.
Better Balance Sheet and Cash Flows:
In FY22, working-capital days shrank drastically to 42 vs. 84 in FY21, aided by
reduced inventory and debtors. In Q1FY22, Inventory turns were >4x. The management
expects to maintain 4x inventory turn in FY23, which will lead to FCF generation.
With less losses and reduced working capital in FY22, the OCF was Rs. 300 cr vs.
Rs. -70 cr in FY21 and FCF was Rs. 435 cr in FY22 vs. Rs. -2.6 cr in FY21.
Hence net debt reduced to Rs. 397 cr in FY22 from Rs. 924 cr in FY21. For
current fiscal (FY23), AFL expects net debt to remain close to FY22 levels.
Intense Competitive Industry: Existing brick-and-mortar stores, online retailers, and potential foreign and domestic competitors could hurt AFL's competitive position and profitability.
Non-ownership of International/Key Brands: AFL does not own the international brands; it is just a distributor of these The termination/non-renewal of any of these agreements may have a material impact on the business.
Revenue Concentration: A significant portion of revenue is derived from U.S. Polo Assn., Arrow, Flying Machine, Tommy Hilfiger, represented as power brands and any reduction in sales under these may adversely impact revenues.
Counterfeit Products: The counterfeit products of key brands is a serious threat to brand image which could impact the sales. The sellers of counterfeit products sell cheap and below standard quality which attracts masses, resulting in loss of sale.
We believe, apparel players focused on domestic market are better placed compared to the players which are export oriented on the back of fear of recession looming in some developed countries like the USA. AFL’s majority (~99%) of revenue is generated from domestic market. Also, the on-going festive season is expected to boost revenue in near term supported by its omni-channel capabilities and significant focus to scale up online business. We believe that management would be able to maintain working capital efficiency and inventory turns of ~4x in on-going fiscal year. The improvement in balance sheet and clean-up in brand portfolio have led to positive PBT for the third consecutive quarter in Q1FY23. At CMP of 340, the stock trades at 22.4x of FY25E earnings, vs. the average of ~57x its peers (ABFRL, Vedant Fashions, and Trent) are trading at FY25E earnings.
Rs in Crores. | Net Sales | EBITDA | PAT | EPS |
---|---|---|---|---|
FY2021 | 1,912 | 4 | -580 | -51.1 |
FY2022 | 3,056 | 191 | -267 | -20.2 |
FY2023E | 3,975 | 433 | 104 | 7.8 |
FY2024E | 4,625 | 533 | 168 | 12.6 |
FY2025E | 5,319 | 639 | 201 | 15.2 |