Indian equity markets recorded a sharp rally during the last week, supported by easing crude oil prices, sustained foreign institutional investor (FII) buying, a stronger rupee and positive domestic corporate earnings. The outcome of the US midterm elections also contributed to improved global sentiment, although concerns surrounding the technology sector remained. BSE Sensex surged 6,568.49 points, or 8.82%, to settle at 81,028.02, while the Nifty 50 advanced 1,977.25 points, or 8.58%, to close at 25,030.35. Broader markets also witnessed strong buying, with the BSE 150 Mid-Cap index gaining 5.59% and the BSE 250 Small-Cap index rising 4.06%. Both benchmark indices extended their winning streak to seven consecutive trading sessions, reflecting a significant improvement in market sentiment. The rally was supported by a sharp decline in crude oil prices, appreciation in the Indian rupee to a six-month high and continued foreign investor inflows. Strong Q2 FY27 earnings from Reliance Industries and Jio Platforms further strengthened domestic sentiment. Meanwhile, October GST collections increased 23% year-on-year to over Rs. 2.31 lakh cr, indicating resilience in domestic economic activity. Despite the strong recovery, investors should remain watchful of elevated global volatility, US inflation data, geopolitical developments and the sustainability of foreign fund inflows. Going forward, earnings performance, crude oil movements and currency stability will remain important factors in determining the direction of domestic equities. Technically, the Nifty support is placed around 24,300-24,000, while resistance is seen between 25,700–26,000.
Global equity markets remained volatile during the week, with concerns over artificial intelligence-related investments and technology stock valuations weighing on US benchmarks. Although markets initially responded positively to the US midterm election outcome, technology stocks faced heavy selling pressure on Thursday before recovering partially on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite declined 3.4% for the week, while the S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.9%. The sharp correction was largely driven by concerns over elevated AI-related capital expenditure, uncertain returns on data-centre investments and the possibility of tighter regulations following the Democrats' electoral gains. The Magnificent Seven companies collectively lost approximately US$1 trillion in market capitalisation on Thursday alone. Technology shares recovered partially on Friday, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.09% and the S&P 500 rising 0.31%, although the Dow declined 0.46%. Semiconductor stocks such as Micron and Nvidia also rebounded after sharp losses in the previous session. US economic data showed manufacturing activity strengthening, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September. October non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, substantially above expectations of 59,000, while unemployment declined to 4.1%. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, while the Bank of England increased its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking its first hike in more than three years. The Bank of Korea reported a record current account surplus in September. Global markets are likely to remain sensitive to US inflation data, central-bank policy expectations, technology-sector developments and geopolitical risks. The sustainability of the AI investment cycle and the outlook for corporate earnings will remain important considerations for markets.
Geopolitical developments involving the US and Iran remained a major factor influencing global energy markets and investor sentiment. Although crude oil prices recorded a sharp weekly decline, concerns about a possible resumption of military action continued to create uncertainty around Middle East energy supplies. Following the US midterm elections, market participants assessed the possibility of renewed military escalation involving Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remained a critical area of concern after reports of additional attacks on oil tankers. Data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations indicated that attacks on vessels were continuing at a near-record rate, highlighting the risks to commercial shipping and regional oil transportation. At the same time, diplomatic developments offered some hope of de-escalation. Iran reportedly submitted a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, raising expectations that negotiations could continue. However, differences between the two countries over Iran's nuclear programme remain significant. Energy market analysts have warned that the absence of a mutually acceptable agreement could keep the risk of escalation elevated. The geopolitical situation remains uncertain, and any renewed military confrontation could disrupt oil shipments, increase shipping insurance costs and put pressure on global energy supplies. Conversely, meaningful progress in negotiations could reduce the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil prices.
Crude oil prices witnessed a sharp correction during the week, reflecting changing expectations around geopolitical developments following the US midterm elections. Brent crude futures settled at US$98.32 per barrel on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at US$90.83 per barrel. Brent declined more than 16% during the week, while WTI lost nearly 13%, indicating a significant reduction in the risk premium built into prices. Despite the weekly decline, concerns about potential supply disruptions remain. Investors are assessing whether the conclusion of the US midterm elections could lead to renewed military action against Iran, potentially affecting crude oil flows from the Middle East. Reports of additional tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have reinforced concerns over the security of shipping routes. At the same time, diplomatic efforts have provided some relief to the market. Reports of an Iranian nuclear proposal being conveyed to Washington through Qatar have raised hopes of a possible negotiated resolution. However, differences between the US and Iran remain substantial, and the risk of further escalation cannot be ruled out. The near-term direction of crude oil will therefore depend largely on geopolitical developments, the continuity of oil shipments and progress in diplomatic negotiations. Any escalation could push prices higher, while a credible resolution may support further moderation.
India's economic indicators continued to reflect healthy domestic activity, although the latest business surveys highlighted some moderation in employment growth, export demand and business confidence. The HSBC Services PMI increased to 55.8 in October 2026 from 55.2 in September, marking the fastest expansion in four months. However, the reading remained below the flash estimate of 56.2. Growth was supported by stronger domestic demand, with new business and sales recording their fastest increases since June. In contrast, export order growth slowed to its weakest pace since February 2023, while employment growth moderated to its slowest level in 10 months. The HSBC Composite PMI Output Index also improved to 56.2 in October from 55.9 in September, indicating the fastest expansion in private-sector activity since June. Stronger services activity offset slower manufacturing output. New business orders increased at a faster pace, while employment growth and business confidence moderated. Importantly, input cost inflation eased to an 11-month low, while output price inflation slowed, suggesting some moderation in cost pressures across the private sector. On the fiscal front, India's gross GST collections increased 23% year-on-year to over Rs. 2.31 lakh cr in October. Domestic sales collections rose 16% to over Rs. 1.59 lakh cr, while revenue from imports increased 42% to Rs. 72,246 cr. During April–October, gross GST collections grew 13.2% to over Rs. 14.77 lakh cr, indicating continued resilience in economic activity and tax collections. The government also announced policy initiatives aimed at strengthening domestic manufacturing and strategic supply chains. The Cabinet approved a Rs. 2,814 cr capital expenditure support scheme for critical mineral processing over five years. The initiative aims to develop domestic processing capabilities for minerals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt, reduce import dependence and improve supply-chain resilience. Separately, the VISTAR scheme received an allocation of Rs. 4,371.10 cr for FY2026–27 to FY2030–31 to strengthen the country's statistical infrastructure and data management systems. The renewable energy sector also recorded progress, with India's non-fossil fuel-based installed capacity reaching 310 GW, compared with over 200 GW in September 2024. Investment in the renewable energy sector has crossed US$67 billion over the last two years. Overall, India's economic outlook remains supported by domestic demand, services activity, GST collections and policy-led investment initiatives. However, slower export order growth, moderating employment expansion and global uncertainty remain areas to monitor. Upcoming CPI inflation data will be particularly important for assessing the domestic inflation trajectory and its implications for monetary policy.
Indian equity markets are likely to enter the coming week with a strong positive momentum following the sharp rally across benchmark and broader indices supported by, sustained FII buying, rupee appreciation, easing crude oil prices and encouraging corporate earnings. However, the sharp rise in benchmark indices over seven consecutive sessions may lead to some consolidation as investors assess valuations and book profits. Global markets remain exposed to volatility in AI-linked technology stocks, uncertainty over future data-centre investments and divergent central-bank policies. The US–Iran situation also remains a key risk for crude oil prices despite the recent correction. On technical front, a sustained move above 25,300–25,500 could strengthen the bullish momentum and open the possibility of further gains towards 25,700–26,000. On the downside, the 24,300–24,000 range is likely to act as the first important support zone. Going forward the key domestic triggers will include October CPI inflation, bank credit and deposit growth, foreign exchange reserves and the ongoing September-quarter earnings season. Globally, US inflation data, China's trade and inflation figures, developments in the technology sector and the US–Iran situation will remain important. Investors should remain selective and focus on companies delivering sustainable earnings growth, healthy cash flows and improving operating performance. The upcoming CPI data, US inflation figures, crude oil movements, FII activity and developments in the US–Iran situation will be key determinants of market direction during the week.