Company Profile
TD Power Systems (TDPS) is a leading manufacturer of AC generators with outputs of 1–250 MW for prime movers, such as steam turbines, gas turbines, hydro turbines, diesel engines, and wind turbines. It also manufactures special-application generators for geothermal and solar-thermal equipment. TDPS has three manufacturing units located in Bengaluru and a well-developed ancillary vendor network. Over the last decade, the company has moved from a 50–50% project–product mix to a predominantly (98% sales) product-based company. Additionally, it also provides motors to Indian Railways through its client and has plans to expand motor offerings for railway and industrial applications. The management expects TDPS revenue to grow 20% YoY in FY24E with a margin expansion of 150–200 bps. Order inflow and enquiries remain strong driving management’s optimism.
Investment Rationale
· Superior Technological Capabilities
TDPS boasts best-in-class manufacturing facilities and technological know-how thanks to its efforts over the last decade and tie-ups with leading OEMs. It has its own technology for generators up to 55 MW and is a licensee of Siemens AG for 2-pole generators from 55 MW up to 200 MW. TDPS uses robotic arms (payback period of 2–3 years) manufactured by ABB/Fanuc at certain stages of generator assembly and intends to improve its automation efforts further. The management expects that the existing asset base can be sweat to INR1,300–1,400cr top line without any major capex with these automation and debottlenecking efforts.
· Making inroads into the motor business
Currently, the only major offering from TDPS on the motor side is Alstom’s multi-year order from Indian Railways for 12,000 HP locomotives. Furthermore, the management intends to directly supply to Indian Railways for which its traction motors are undergoing a six-month trial. This is an addressable market of Rs.1,000cr of which TDPS targets an 8–10% share. Another big optionality for TDPS is the upcoming results of the 12,000-HP electric locomotives tender for freight trains by Indian Railways for which Alstom is among the front runners. The management insisted this was an opportunity and has not included the potential sales in its guidance. If everything goes in favour of TDPS, its motor business may become reasonably big (~400-500 cr). The company is waiting for approval from Indian Railways to bid for new tenders and hopes to receive it in 5 months.
· Revenue growth guidance of 20% for FY24E with operating leverage benefits
TDPS expects 20% top-line growth in FY24E, driven by the strong order inflow in domestic and international markets. Moreover, a margin expansion of 150–200 bps would accentuate bottom line growth. The management expects the margin expansion to be driven by operating leverage and improvement in high-margin aftermarket sales. Aftermarket sales have started becoming a meaningful share of the revenue mix as TDPS’ installed base has matured and is up for aftermarket services. TDPS is likely to start reporting the aftermarket sales separately from the next year. The company is debt-free.
Q1FY24 Financial Analysis
The consolidated revenue for the quarter stood at Rs 220 crores, an increase of 7% on a YoY basis. The EBITDA for the quarter stood at Rs 39 crores, an increase of 39% YoY basis. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 18%, an increase of 400 bps on a YoY basis. PAT for the quarter stood at Rs 27 crores, which increased by 29% on a YoY basis.
Order book of company: As of 30th June 2023, the company's total order book stood at Rs 1386 crores. Out of this Generator and motors businesses together have an order size of Rs 620 crores and the Railway business has an order size of Rs 745 crores. The order book size for spares and aftermarket segment stands at Rs 16 crores. The order book of the company in Q1 FY23 was at Rs 204 crores and today in Q1 FY24 the order book stands at Rs 237 crores, an increase of 16% on a YoY basis.
As per the company's management, the domestic order inflow is higher by 58% due to motor orders and some large orders for generators from steel and Agro in the domestic segment. Although exports and deemed exports were lower than in Q1 last year, this was due to some big orders having gone into negotiation in Q1. Additionally, the management aims at achieving a ratio of Export and domestic orders of 55% to 45% ratio size respectively.
Capex: The company has planned to invest Rs 120 crores, for the construction of its 3rd plant, which is planned to be operational in 1st Phase post 12 to 14 months and it will start contributing towards reducing some bottlenecks in the capacity in the second half of next year.
Risk & Concerns
· High competition
The company operates in a highly competitive industry, where it faces competition from big players in the industry like Siemens, CG Power & Industries, etc. The utility of its products is found in multiple industries, and its products fall under the consumer durables category, which increases the size of its competitors manyfold in terms of direct and indirect competition. However, the company holds a strong position in the C generators manufacturing domain and is known as one of the strongest players in this category due to the high quality of its products.
· Susceptible to operations on account of cyclical demand in end-user industries
The company’s business is dependent on the demand in end-user industries and cyclicality in different industries at different time periods has a significant impact on the business of the company.
Outlook & Valuation
TD Power Systems Ltd. is a well-established player in the manufacturing of AC generators. The company’s strong position depicts the high quality and strong customer base in the market. Its product finds utility in multiple markets which eradicates the risk of revenue concentration. The company’s current order book stands at Rs 1300 crores plus, with an increased order inflow rate of 16% on YoY basis. We believe TDPS holds strong position in the market with a healthy geographical revenue diversification and utility of products in multiple user industries, the company is going to witness a strong growth trajectory in the coming years. TD Power Systems is Debt debt-free company, with a high profitability in the business. Its current ROCE, ROE & ROA stands at 22%, 17% & 10.6% respectively. Overall, remain positive on the business of the company.
At a CMP of Rs 272, the stock is trading at PE multiple of 42x its FY24 earnings.
We recommend a ‘BUY’ rating to the stock.