Company Profile
Repco Home Finance Ltd. (RHFL), was incorporated in May 2000 as a subsidiary of Repco bank. As on 31st March 2023, the Repco bank holds 37.13% stake in RHFL. RHFL business focuses on housing loans and mortgage loans to entrepreneurs and salaried employees’ class of people. Currently the company is present in 12 states and 1 Union Territory with 159 branches and 33 satellite centers. Geographically the bank has presence across India in West Bengal, Orissa, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan. Aggregate loan book is distributed between Salaried and Non- Salaried employees at 48.4% & 51.6% respectively.
Investment Rationale
· Improvement in Asset quality on account of improved Gross stage 3 and Net stage 3 assets
Gross stage 3 assets continue to fall in FY23 at 5.8% as compared to FY22 at 6.2% & FY21 at 7.0%. The GNPA & NNPA of the company is at 5.8% & 3.0% respectively in March 2023. Similarly, on customer profile, salaried segment GNPA as well as non-salaried GNPA fell to 6-quarter lows of 3.0% and 8.4% respectively. Additionally, the stage 1 & 2 comprise 94.2% of the aggregate portfolio. This shows the improving asset quality of the firm. Also there is an increase in stage-3 provisioning from Rs 347 crores in FY22 to Rs 357 crores in FY23, credit cost remained low at 26bps on account of provision reversals made for the restructured pool.
· Sustainable growth on account of multi-quarter high disbursement of Rs 840 crores
As on 31st March 2023, the Loan disbursement was at Rs 840 crores, against the sanctions at Rs 966 crores. The loan disbursement is at multi-quarter high. The loan disbursement was at Rs 696 crores in Q3 FY23. During the quarter Q4 FY23 the AUM grew by 2%. The company plans to grow sanctions and disbursements by 20% and achieve an AUM growth of 12% on a conservative basis in FY ‘24. Further stabilization of branch operations on the new LOS (well received by the field) would enable higher disbursements in coming months.
· Business expansion plan
RHFL plans to open 10 branches and 10 satellite centers in the next fiscal year to drive growth and increase AUM. The company is also targeting growth through opening new branches, micro-level follow-up, and decentralization.
Q4 FY23 Financial analysis
Repco Home finance reported Q4Fy23 earnings above street estimate. NII increased by 6.2% QoQ but decreased by 1.9% YoY to Rs147 cr on account of weak AUM growth. Reported NIM was flat YoY but increased by 30bps QoQ to 5.1%. Reported yields on assets increased by 30bps QoQ to 11.1% vs 10.8% in 4QFY22. PAT for the year was at Rs 82 crores, an increase of 95% on YoY basis.
Going forward, the management has guided for ~12% AUM growth and ~20% growth in disbursements and sanctions each from FY24
Risk & Concerns
· Credit risk
The company is in the business of lending money. Any default by borrowers in repayment of money exposes the company to credit risk.
· Geographically concentrated operations
During the year FY23 Tamil Nadu contributed dominantly with 57% to the aggregate loan book of the company. This creates revenue concentration risk for the company.
Outlook & Valuation
NIM in 4QFY23 stood at 5.1% vs 4.8% in 3QFY23 and flat in 4QFY22. The management expects NIM to sustain around similar levels going forward on the back of interest rate pass-on; the company has already passed on 145bps rate hikes in FY23. The asset quality continues to see an improvement, with GNPA/NNPA each declining by 40bps QoQ to 5.8%/3% and Stage 3 ECL provisions increasing to ~50% vs 31.9% in 4QFY22. Further, credit cost declined by 186bps YoY to 26bps, supporting overall profitability. We expect Repco home finance profitability will improve going forward on account of sustained
improvement in growth, disbursement and asset quality.
At CMP of Rs 291, the stock is trading at PB of 0.58x its FY25E BVPS. We recommend ‘BUY’ rating to the stock.