StockAxis

Nestle India Ltd

Consumer Food

Large Cap Focus

CMP
Rs. 22352.00
Rating:
Buy
June 07, 2023

Stock Info

BSE
500790
NSE
NESTLEIND
Bloomberg
NEST:IN
Reuters
NEST.NS
Sector
Consumer Food
Face Value (Rs)
10
Equity Capital (Rs cr)
96
Mkt Cap (Rs cr)
209,234.64
52w H/L (Rs)
22300.00 - 16435.00
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE)
71,211

Shareholding Pattern

(as on 31-Mar)
%
Promoter
62.76
FIIs
12.06
DIIs
9.19
Public & Others
15.99
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Price performance

Return (%)
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
-1.25
17.19
27.68
Sensex
1.67
4.26
12.78
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Indexed Stock Performance

Nestle India Ltd Sensex
Nestle India Ltd
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Best bet to play the Indian consumption theme

Company Profile

NESTLE is India’s leading FMCG Company. It is a subsidiary of Nestlé S.A., a Swiss MNC which is the world's largest food & beverage company. India is among the fastest-growing markets for Nestlé SA. The company manufactures products of international quality under internationally famous brand names such as Nescafé, Maggi, Milkybar, Kit Kat, Bar-one, Milkmaid, and Nestea and in recent years. The company has also introduced products of daily consumption such as Nestlé Milk, Nestlé Slim Milk, Nestlé Dahi and Nestlé Jeera Raita. Nestlé India has nine manufacturing facilities in India - at Moga (Punjab), Samalkha Haryana; Nanjangud, Karnataka; Ponda and Bicholim, Goa; Choladi, Tamil Nadu; Pantnagar, Uttarakhand; Tahliwal, Himachal Pradesh; and Sanand, Gujarat. It recently acquired Purina Petcare to enter into the pet care business and launched Gerber Cereals to drive the premiumisation agenda. The company operates a robust distribution network (5.1 Mn outlets) that covers both urban and rural areas of India.

Investment Arguments

Leading position in several product categories, well-established brands, and diversified revenue profile

Nestlé India is a leading player in the Indian FMCG industry, with an established market position in most product categories it has a presence in. The company is a pioneer in the culinary segment, with a range of products under the Maggi brand. The company is among the top two players in most of its product categories: milk products and nutrition, beverages, prepared dishes and cooking aids, and chocolate and confectionery. In these segments, Nestle India benefits from its well-established brands.

Revenue is diversified, with 41% of the revenue generated from milk and nutrition products (dairy products and weaning foods), 12% from powdered and liquid beverages (instant coffee, iced tea, and other beverage vending mixes), 32% from prepared dishes and cooking aids (the Maggi range), and around 16% from chocolates and confectionery (including Kit Kat and Munch) as of March 2023. The company has launched over 90 products since 2016, with around 20 projects in the pipeline.

Continued technical support from Nestlé SA

Most of Nestlé India’s brands are part of the parent’s international portfolio. The company enjoys access to its parent’s proprietary technology and strong research and development capabilities. Switzerland-based Nestlé SA holds a 62.76% stake in Nestle India and is the world’s largest player in the food and beverages sector. Nestle India launched GERBER its global premium toddler nutrition brand in July 2022.

New Product Development and Premiumisation growing strong

Nestle launched +110 new products in the last seven years and their contribution has increased significantly. Moreover, 30 new projects are in the pipeline which includes its recent announcement of launching millet-based products. Moreover, to drive premiumisation, it acquired the PURINA Petcare business that delivers nutrition to pets and launched globally renowned GERBER cereals catering to the nutrition needs of the toddler segment.

Easing of commodity prices to aid margins for Nestle

Management indicated early signs of softening of commodity – edible oils, wheat, and packaging materials – prices. However, the cost of fresh milk, fuels, and green coffee is still firm on the back of continued increases in demand and price volatility. The company had already taken price hikes to mitigate the impact. Given the softening in commodities, management expects a recovery in margins.

Q1CY23 Financial Performance Analysis

Nestle India’s Q1CY23 recorded strong earnings growth that managed to beat street estimates on all fronts owing to broad-based growth across segments and continued momentum in the exports business. The domestic business grew 22% YoY, mainly driven by pricing, but has a healthy underlying volume and mix evolution. Export business recovered (after four consecutive qtr. of sub-par growth) and reported a third consecutive quarter of strong growth i.e. 25% YoY.

Revenues grew 21% to Rs.4831cr as against Rs.3993cr registered in the same quarter of the previous fiscal on the back of double-digit growth across all categories. Growth was backed by pricing, volume, and a mix in the domestic market. Nestle saw strong growth in metro and mega cities while rural growth was also strong, secular, and robust, led by volumes. On the operational front, EBITDA witnessed a steady growth of 20% to Rs.1110cr owing to robust revenue growth. Operating margin was at 23% (down ~20bps YoY; flat QoQ), led by savings in other expenses (down ~70bps YoY) and employee cost (down ~60bps YoY).Net profit saw a strong growth of 26% to Rs.751cr YoY thus demonstrating stellar growth across all parameters.

Key Risks & Concerns

Susceptibility to intense competition - The domestic FMCG segment is highly competitive with the entry of new players, including multinationals, in various divisions such as instant noodles, packaged foods, beverages, chocolates, and confectionery. Competition keeps increasing owing to aggressive product launches, evolving consumer preferences, and strong marketing strategies adopted by players.

Elevated raw material prices – Any adverse increase in key commodity prices could materially impact the company’s margins and profitability.

A slowdown in rural growth – With the rural segment accounting for 20% of sales, any slowdown in rural areas could adversely impact the company’s earnings.

Outlook & Valuation

Nestle India managed to deliver better-than-expected earnings in the quarter gone by, amidst a challenging macro environment. Nestle is largely a play on the packaged foods business and management continues to focus on volume-led growth. Nestle has the pricing lever and ability to add premium products to drive growth in the long term. We believe Nestle will continue to benefit from distribution expansion in rural areas (20% of total sales). We remain positive on Nestle as it consistently delivered resilient performance led by 1) Efforts towards rural penetration and market share gains through the RURBAN strategy, 2) Constant focus on innovation (launching 110+ products in the last seven years), 3) Premiumisation in the core categories and launching differentiated products, 4) Entry into new categories of the future (Purina Pet care and Gerber’s for toddlers), 5) Introduction of D2C platform to gauge consumer attention and 6) increasing its depth of distribution network.

At a CMP of Rs.22,357 the stock is currently trading at 57x FY25E (EPS – Rs.390) and hence, we recommend BUY on the stock.

Consolidated Financial Statements