StockAxis

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd

Household & Personal Products

Large Cap Focus

CMP
Rs. 1018.85
Rating:
Buy
May 23, 2023

Stock Info

BSE
532424
NSE
GODREJCP
Bloomberg
GDRJY:US
Reuters
GOCP.BO
Sector
Household & Personal Products
Face Value (Rs)
1
Equity Capital (Rs cr)
102
Mkt Cap (Rs cr)
104,003.79
52w H/L (Rs)
1025.00 - 708.50
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE)
297,830

Shareholding Pattern

(as on 31-Mar)
%
Promoter
63.22
FIIs
23.72
DIIs
7.11
Public & Others
5.95
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Price performance

Return (%)
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
2.81
9.41
35.30
Sensex
3.18
3.71
14.14
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Indexed Stock Performance

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd Sensex
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Strong Financial Growth continued in Q4 FY23

Company Profile

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. (GCPL) was incorporated in 2001. It is a part of the Godrej group and was formed post-demerger of Godrej Soaps Ltd. The company has a diverse product line that caters to the everyday needs of the consumer such as soaps, hair colourants, air fresheners, and liquid detergents. The company has various overseas acquisitions outside India to capture markets such as Africa and Latin America. Its manufacturing facilities are located in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Meghalaya, Puducherry, Sikkim, and Tamil Nadu. 

Investment Rationale

·        Diversified revenue profile

GPCL has a diversified revenue profile. It has a presence in over 90 countries, with a customer base of 1.2 Bn.  In FY22 56% of the revenue was generated from India and 44% from overseas. Africa (along with the USA and the Middle East) and Indonesia accounted for 25% and 14%, respectively, of total revenue. The revenue across product segments is distributed in the following way in FY 22 where Personal care and home care accounted for 58% and 39%, respectively. Strategically the company focuses on acquiring the potential local brand with strong market appeal and product quality. Post-acquisition with the support of GPCL's resources these brands create a strong presence and impact in the market. The revenue contribution from overseas markets stood at  44% in FY 22, an increase of 91% on a 10-year horizon basis (in FY2010 the export market was at 23%).

 

·        Strong product portfolio with a leadership position and pricing power

 

GPCL has a diverse product portfolio which caters to the everyday needs of consumers. Due to its strong product portfolio across various segments, GPCL enjoys pricing power in consumer markets.

 Its products from various segments such as household insecticide and hair colour segments are very popular. It is also the second-largest player in the soaps category in India. Other segments such as household insecticides, air fresheners and wet tissues in Indonesia and dry hair extensions (hair braids) and ethnic hair colour segments have a strong market presence in India and overseas markets.

 

The consumer products industry is a very competitive market where price differentiation, brand differentiation and a strong approach towards consumers matter a lot. This requires rigorous innovation in product design, quality and packaging along with a strong advertisement for an appealing brand engagement. All this requires innovation and investment which the company has always done to enjoy its strong market position. It has continuously managed to grow its revenue cycle and has maintained healthy EBITDA margins on the operational front.

 

 

·        Increasing traction in the domestic business

Over the years, Godrej Consumer Products’ India business has displayed impressive growth. This can be ascertained from the fact that the Indian business’ contribution has risen from 52% in 2016-17 to 57% in 2021-22. Moreover, for the Oct-Dec 2022 period, the operating margins for the India business stood at 27% compared to 13% and 20%, respectively in the Africa, US, Middle East, and Indonesian markets. India business ROCE is several times higher than International business.

With turmoil and an impending slowdown in the developed markets, the strength in the India business is expected to insulate the company from any major decline in sales or volumes.

·        Turnaround in overseas business

Management is focussing on profitability improvement in the African region (GCPL’s second largest sales contributor) and continued discipline in capital allocation will reduce the historical drag on the overseas businesses.

Medium-term margin expansion to mid-teens over the next two years (versus 13% in Q3FY23). FMCG makes up roughly one–third of the Africa business, and is growing much faster than the rest of the business.

 

·        Strong Financial risk profile of the company

The company's Fixed assets as on 30th September 2022 stood at Rs 9701 crores. Its Reserves are at Rs 12576 crores and cash & cash equivalents are at Rs 473 crores. For more than a decade the company's operating cashflows are always positive with strong control over debtor days and cash conversion days. This helps the company in maintaining high liquidity which further helps it in expanding the business The debt-to-equity ratio of the company is 0.09x, which shows a strong financial risk profile of the company.

Q4 FY23 Analysis

For the quarter that ended 31st March 2023, the revenue of the company stood at Rs 3200 crores, an increase of 10% on a YoY basis. EBITDA for the quarter stood at Rs 641 crores, an increase of 38% on a YoY basis. EBITDA margins decreased slightly by 400 bps on a YoY basis to 20%. PAT for the quarter was at Rs 452 crores, an increase of 25% on a YoY basis.

Risk & Concerns

·        High Competition

The consumer products market is subject to intense competition with the presence of several organised and unorganised brands in various product categories. ability to gain market share in its soap segment could be adversely affected by the aggression of HUL, ITC, Wipro, etc.

·        Raw material price fluctuations

Palm oil and crude derivatives (chemicals) are the major raw materials. Over the past few years, a decline in raw material prices had helped improve operating profitability.

Outlook & Valuation

We like GCPL’s strategy of launching innovative products at disruptive price points.  GCPL posted a good Q4Fy23 result under new MD’s leadership and we expect this trend to sustain. The company expects to witness growth in revenues and volumes along with improvement in margins in the near term on the back of slowing inflation and gradual recovery in rural demand. We believe it is a key beneficiary of the sharp reduction in raw material costs (especially palm oil) from the peak over the next few quarters. Hair colours, air care, and liquid detergents are growth drivers for the company. International business is also poised for some recovery. Increasing traction in the domestic business should improve margins and return ratios.

At a CMP of Rs 1019, the stock is trading at 41x its FY25E earnings. We recommend a 'BUY' rating for the stock.

Consolidated Financial Statements