StockAxis

Cummins India Ltd

Diesel Engines

MILARS Portfolio

CMP
Rs. 1470.70
Rating:
Buy
January 13, 2023

Stock Info

BSE
500480
NSE
CUMMINSIND
Bloomberg
KKC IN
Reuters
CUMM. NS
Sector
Diesel Engines
Face Value (Rs)
2
Equity Capital (Rs cr)
55
Mkt Cap (Rs cr)
41,063.02
52w H/L (Rs)
1552.00 - 877.20
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE)
145,890

Shareholding Pattern

(as on 30-Sep)
%
Promoter
51
FIIs
10.37
DIIs
26.54
Public & Others
12.1
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Price performance

Return (%)
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
0.02
22.67
51.97
Sensex
-3.50
4.05
-1.95
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Indexed Stock Performance

Cummins India Ltd Sensex
Cummins India Ltd
Source: Ace equity, StockAxis Research

Strong Operational Performance to drive healthy growth Ahead

Introduction

Cummins India Ltd. was incorporated in 1962. The company is engaged in the business of manufacturing diesel and natural gas engines. It is the market leader in India in the gensets manufacturingindustry. The company possesses strong technological capabilities and is backed by its US-based parent~ Cummins Inc. Company’s major business divisions includethe Engines Business divisions and Lubes Business Division, which contribute 69% and 31% of the total revenues of the company respectively. The domestic and export segment contributed 73% & 27% respectively in FY22.

Investment Rational

·        Sustainable demand in both Domestic and exports markets

The company expects demand revival from major sectors of the company such as pharmaceuticals, construction, healthcare, commercial realty, etc in the domestic Powergen category. However, in the Industrial segment, the growth of the company will be driven by rising demand from railway electrification, mining, marine, oil & gas, defence; etc. Going forward the company’s focus remains intact on growing its rail business, particularly in the electrification domain with a focus on other sectors like marine in the domestic region. On the geographical front, the export demand looks stable in countries like Latin America, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Middle East, while demand might slow downin the Europe region.

·        Implementation of new CPCB-IV norms to benefit the company

Cummins India is going to benefit from the implementation of new CPCB-IV norms which will be implemented from July 2023 onwards. Post the implementation of these norms the expected rise in prices of Powergen gensets will be by 30-40%. It is expected that dealers will start pre-buy, in starting period of CY2023, which will lead to high sales for Cummins India. However, a demand slowdown is expected post-implementation of these norms. But overall demand looks stable in long term for the company. The company is also focused on expanding its export markets in Canada, Europe, and North America as the technology isequally acceptable as per US-tier 4 emission norms. This will add to the overall growth of the company in the long term.

·        Margin profile expected to improve in the near to medium term

Recent softening in the commodity cost & realisation of price hikes are expected to drive the operating margin.

·        Focus on expansion of product portfolio and implementation of latest technologies

Cummins India could offer products that support India’s mission of zero carbon emission vehicles. The company is looking forward to working in green space technology. India’s rising focus on emerging as an electrolyser manufacturing centre, with 8 GW of capacity expected to come in line by 2025, will be beneficial for Cummins, as the company is also setting up an electrolyser/hydrogen fuel cell capacity plantindependently or in partnership. It’s parent company Cummins Inc. has previously used PEM electrolysis technology used for manufacturing PEM-based electrolysers. The parent company has good exposure to providing more than 550 electrolysers worldwide with PEM and alkaline technologies globally. Currently, for FY23 the company has made a Capex announcement of Rs 200-250 crores, which will primarily focus on building new products, upgradation of existing facilities, and engineering works.

·        Q2 FY23 performance of the company

The company’s revenues for the quarter ended30th September 2022 stood at Rs 1922 crores an increase of 11 % YoY basis. On the geographical front, the domestic and export revenues stood at Rs 1391 crores and Rs 531 crores, an increase of 11% and 21% YoY basis. EBITDA of the company grew by 11% on a YoY basis at Rs 290 crores. EBITDA margins managed to grow on account of operating leverage and absorption of fixed costs. The PAT for the quarter stood at Rs 252 crores, an increase of 15% YoY basis on account of strong operational performance and higher other Income of Rs 85 crores.

Risk & Concerns

·        Global crisis & economic slowdown:

Global crisis due to geopolitical situations and economic slowdown in major economies of the world may impact the business in the exports division of the company significantly.

·        High diesel prices; anda sharp rise in steel/casting prices can hurt Cummins India profitability.

 

Outlook & Valuation

We believe launch of new products in newer technologies such as green hydrogen, fuel cell, electrolysers, healthy demand outlook in domestic and international market, consolidation of global supply chain are future growth drivers of the company. Sectors like data centers, Healthcare and infrastructure will drive growth for the Cummins India.  Strong balance sheet and strong parentage will sustain future growth momentum.  At CMP of Rs. 1471, the stock is trading at 30x of its Fy25E earnings.

We recommend ‘BUY’ rating for the stock.

 

Consolidated Financial Statements