Company profile
CRISIL is a leading, agile and innovative global analytics company driven by its mission of making markets function better. It is India’s foremost provider of ratings, data, research, analytics and solutions with a strong track record of growth, culture of innovation, and global footprint. It has delivered independent opinions, actionable insights, and efficient solutions to over 100,000+ customers through businesses that operate from India, the US, the UK, Argentina, Poland, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Australia. It is majority owned by S&P Global Inc, a leading provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide.
Their clients range from micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to large corporates, investors and top global financial institutions. It works with commercial and investment banks, insurance companies, private equity players and asset management companies globally. CRISIL’s market-leading ratings, benchmarks, analytics and solutions empower lenders, borrowers, issuers, investors, regulators and intermediaries to make decisions with conviction.
Investment Arguments
Strong growth in domestic ratings and GAC
Domestic ratings business witnessed significant growth acceleration the quarter gone by aided by 1) higher volumes across sectors (NBFC, HFC, Infra, etc.), 2) strong growth in surveillance fees (focus on full realization). While the competition has revived, CRISIL remains steadfastly committed to its distinguished pricing and its pursuit for upping pricing wherever suitable. The main drivers of growth were significant ratings traction witnessed by S&P Global, increased engagement in newer areas like ESG, risk transformation and few others, and cost inflation/currency movement. GAC’s revenue has grown in high single digits on an average over a longer run. Global Analytical Center (GAC) increased support to S&P Global Ratings across surveillance.
Robust traction in Global Research & Risk Solutions (GR&RS) and Market Intelligence & Analytics MI&A to sustain growth
Global Research & Risk Solutions (GR&RS) witnessed traction for credit lending and regulatory change solutions. Global Benchmarking Analytics (GBA) saw the impact of slowdown in discretionary spending by global financial institutions. It continues to invest in building new products and solutions. Market Intelligence & Analytics (Ml&A) saw momentum in its Credit and Risk, and Research and Consulting offerings.
Overall margins can witness gradual improvement
Operating leverage from stronger business volumes, sustenance of pricing premium and focus on surveillance fee realization drove a material expansion in domestic ratings margin. The company sees further headroom for operating leverage in domestic ratings business. Revenue mix may also keep shifting towards the ratings segment with growth remaining moderate in global businesses. The margin defense in the latter segment can come from modularity in employee cost, re-deployment of the bench and measured hiring (not filling attrition).
Medium term outlook remains healthy
In the medium term, there are many capex drivers that look encouraging, including low corporate debt in India, low bank leverage, better access to SME credit and other domestic factors favoring India such as political, policy continuity, including likely more PLI schemes. International factors such as China+1 and green energy investing will entail very large capex globally. Also, capex is driven by profit cycles, and here, the US economy seeing record profitability will enable it lead capex.
Q4FY24 Financial Performance
CRISIL Ltd delivered healthy earnings growth for the quarter ended Q4FY24. Consolidated net sales rose 12% YoY to Rs.918 cr as compared to Rs.822 cr registered in the same quarter of corresponding fiscal. Consolidated EBITDA witnessed a robust growth of 25% YoY to Rs.269 cr. EBITDA Margin expanded 300 bps to 29%. Net Profit jumped 35% YoY to Rs.210 cr.
After strong growth in the corporate bond market during the first half of 2023, issuances declined in the second half as yields rose. Bank credit growth was steady, supported by both retail and services. CRISIL Ratings maintained its leadership in corporate bond ratings given investor preference for best-in-class ratings. Overall, revenue was up 15.5% on-year in the quarter, and 16.8% in 2023.
Global Analytical Center (GAC) continued to drive surveillance support across the analytical practices of S&P Ratings, and partnered on data and technology transformation programs.
The Ratings segment grew 18.3% in the quarter and 16.4% for the year ended December 31, 2023.
Key Risks & Concerns
Foreign exchange risk - CRISIL earns a significant amount of revenue in foreign currency. Hence, rupee appreciation or depreciation may have a material impact on its revenue and profitability
Policy risk - In recent years, the regulator SEBI issued guidelines mandating more disclosures by credit rating agencies (CRAs) to ensure greater discipline in the ratings process.
Business continuity risk - CRISIL operates and caters to clients from multiple geographies. Any disruption in operations on account of a business continuity incident may result in negative reputation impact and exposure of breach in client contracts.
Outlook & Valuation
CRISIL Ltd reported strong earnings growth in Q4FY24 driven by research, analytics & solutions. The research, analytics and solutions segment grew 9.8% in the quarter and 12.4% in year ended December 31, 2023. Growth traction has been strong in domestic ratings and S&P ratings support (GAC) businesses, there is near-term uncertainty in global businesses (particularly benchmarking analytics). The latter could weigh on company’s growth in the current year given its large contribution in revenue. Global Research & Risk Solutions (GR&RS) saw traction in research and lending solutions. Global Benchmarking Analytics (GBA) saw momentum in corporate and investment banking (CIB), driven by the emphasis on client engagement and product innovation. Market Intelligence & Analytics (Ml&A) witnessed momentum in credit, risk and consulting offerings.
At CMP of Rs.4910, the stock is trading at 45x FY25E and hence, we recommend BUY rating on the stock.