stockaxis

Bajaj Finance Ltd

Finance - NBFC

Large Cap Focus

CMP
Rs. 8430
Rating:
Buy
February 18, 2025

Stock Info

BSE
500034
NSE
BAJFINANCE
Sector
Finance - NBFC
Face Value (Rs)
2
Equity Capital (Rs cr)
124
Mkt Cap (Rs cr)
523,111.05
52w H/L (Rs)
8662.80 - 6187.80
Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE)
97,119

Shareholding Pattern

(as on 31-Dec)
%
Promoter
54.70
FIIs
20.79
DIIs
15.08
Public & Others
9.44
Source: Ace equity, stockaxis Research

Price performance

Return (%)
1m
3m
12m
Absolute
17.33
28.30
25.53
Sensex
-0.81
-1.74
4.52
Source: Ace equity, stockaxis Research

Indexed Stock Performance

Bajaj Finance Ltd Sensex
Bajaj Finance Ltd
Source: Ace equity, stockaxis Research

Resilient Q3 performance; amidst challenging macro environment

Company Profile

Bajaj Finance Ltd. (BFL), a subsidiary of Bajaj Finserv Ltd., is a deposit-taking Non-Banking Financial Company (NBFC-D) registered with the RBI and classified as an NBFC-Investment and Credit Company (NBFC-ICC).

BFL offers a range of financial services, including lending and accepting deposits, stock broking and insurance distribution to customers across urban and rural India.  It has a diversified lending portfolio across retail, SMEs, and commercial customers with significant presence in both urban and rural India. It accepts public and corporate deposits. Established 35 years ago, BFL serves 97.12 million customers with an AUM of ₹398,043cr as of December 31, 2024. It holds the highest domestic credit rating of AAA/Stable for long-term borrowing, A1+ for short-term borrowing, and CRISIL AAA/Stable & [ICRA]AAA(Stable) for its FD program, along with a long-term issuer credit rating of BB+/Positive and a short-term rating of B from S&P Global Ratings.

Investment Arguments

Superior Track record of execution with a robust growth history

Bajaj Finance is probably the best engine in the financial services space; the company has delivered industry-leading AUM growth in the past, along with sharp focus on asset quality and profitability metrics (ROEs of 20-22% on an average). On driving 32% EPS CAGR with consistent RoE of 20-22% (FY2021-22 RoEs were lower due to Covid). Even at its current scale, Bajaj Finance continues to grow at 25-35% on an average.

A secularly consistent, profitable model

Bajaj Finance has time and again demonstrated consistency in delivering healthy ROEs at around 20-22%. Despite a sharp NIM compression, expectations are that RoE will remain strong at 19-21% over FY2026-27E reflecting productivity benefits. Cost optimization measures, along with other tech initiatives are expected to bring down the cost-to-AAUM ratio to 3.8% by FY2027E from 4% in FY2025 (4.3% in FY2024). Despite higher credit costs currently, caused due to expansion into sub-prime and delayed recovery in unsecured segments, the asset quality still remains among the best among peers.

Growth will be underpinned by a large expansion in the customer base

Bajaj Finance expects to grow its total customer franchise to over 200mn by FY29, from over 97.12mn currently. Bajaj Finance’s ability to cross sell its financial services product portfolio to a large % of its customer base remains one of its key strengths. For example, the Product per Customer (PPC) stood at 6.1 in 9MFY25 vs 4.99 in FY21, which is again the best among all its peers.

Deep AI integration will drive gains on opex and credit costs to sustain ahead of the curve.

Bajaj Finance has announced its plans to implement its tech initiatives across 4 key verticals: (i) India Stack, (ii) Platforms, (iii) Products, (iv) and Tech.

The implementation of GenAI specifically is expected to generate ~150cr worth of benefits in terms of cost saves in FY26e. Other notable initiatives are Personalization, Account Aggregator license, Rewards as a platform, ONDC, Cyber Security, Insurance for All, Vernacular, and Credit on UPI.

Well-entrenched network of Distribution across India

The company boasts of a total active distribution network of over 2.24 lakh touchpoints across consumer durable stores, (both urban and rural), Digital Product Stores, Lifestyle retail format stores, Auto Dealers, EMI Card Retail stores, CV/Tractor Finance Dealers, and Independent Financial Agents. This network has seen consistent additions, with over 8900 touchpoints added during the period.

Key Risks and Concerns

Increasing availability of alternatives in consumer lending, like e-commerce/EMI cards and co-branded cards

The increasing availability of popular alternatives like co-branded credit cards, along with intense competition in the partnership model of lending, poses risks of market crowding in this space. Additionally, the rise of prominent e-commerce firms and fintechs in India, poses another challenge for Bajaj Finance on the competition front.

Foray into new loan verticals could expose it to cyclicality in credit costs.

BAF’s foray into multiple new areas, such as cars, tractors, CVs, and MFI, could (in the future) make its growth and credit costs vulnerable to cyclicality, despite having a well-diversified product mix.

Potential risk of stress in the B2C loan book, especially unsecured loans.

The company's leverage analysis highlights higher default risk and lower collections for customers, with three or more live unsecured loans. Lending to such customers has been significantly reduced, and the company targets retracing pre-Covid levels by Q4. Urban B2C default rates are lower, but collection efficiencies remain subdued, taking the longest to normalize. Customers with three personal loans (3PL) peaked at ~14% and have now declined to ~8%.

Q3FY25 Financial Performance

Bajaj Finance (BAF)’s Q3FY25 results delivered a beat on analyst estimates, The outperformance was reflected in its robust financials. PAT came in at INR 4,308cr (+18.4% YoY, +7.4% QoQ) led by +7bps improvement in NIMs leading to NII growth of +22.6% YoY, +6.2% QoQ to INR9,38cr. Opex to net total income improved to 33.1%, compared to 33.9% the previous year, which led to PPoP of INR 7805cr (+27% YoY, +6.8% QoQ). Credit cost during the quarter was largely steady at 2.16% vs 2.13% QoQ. GS3/NS3 moved up +6bps/+2bps QoQ to 1.12%/0.48% majorly coming in from two &three-wheeler segment. Consolidated PCR stands at 57% as of 31st December 2024.

Overall, AUM growth during the quarter was strong at +6.5% QoQ, +28% YoY. Total AUM for BAF as of 31stDecember 2024 stood at Rs. 2,93,370cr, up 28% YoY. Segmental split of the major loan segments was as follows: Urban B2C Loans 28%, Urban Sales Finance 10%, Commercial Lending 9%, Mortgages 8%, Rural Sales Finance 7%, Loan Against Securities 7%. Urban B2C saw the fastest growth, up 36% YoY and 8% QoQ, followed by Rural Sales Finance (up 29% YoY and 9% QoQ). Commercial Lending grew by a robust 28% YoY and QoQ, while, LAS witnessed elevated traction, growing 24% YoY and 11% QoQ. Urban Sales Finance grew 19% YoY and 7% QoQ. Mortgages grew in high single digits at 9% YoY and flat QoQ.

BAF booked over 12 million new loans in the quarter, adding 5 million new customers, taking its total customer franchise count to 97.12 million -on track to surpass 100mn by the next fiscal year.

Key Conference Call Takeaways

Guidance: (i) Management expects to maintain a consolidated balance sheet growth of 25% and profit growth of 22-23% for the upcoming fiscal year, (ii) On a consolidated basis, it will target to deliver AUM growth of 25%, (iii) BAF guided for credit costs of 2.0-2.05% in Q4FY25, (iv) PAT growth guidance of 22-23%.

Employee Count& Collections

  • The company added 2,824 employees in Q3FY25. Annualized attrition as of 31st Dec’24 was 16.2%.
  • Total employee count stood at 62,176, with a reduced hiring rate as the company moves into FY26.
  • Employee headcount addition will continue to be lower as it moves into FY26.
  • Over 20,000 employees manage debt collection, with 50% of operations now digital, enhancing efficiency.

Geographic Expansion

  • Added 50-55 locations, totaling 4,210 locations, with a focus on optimizing operational expenses.

Loan Verticals

  • 2W/3W composition is going down as a result of the company not doing 2W/3W financing and it will stabilize next year at ~3.5%-4% by Mar'26.
  • Rural B2C business is back in growth mode, reflecting superior growth rates.
  • Urban B2C: Default rates are lower, and collection efficiencies are still lower. It may take the longest to get back to normalcy.
  • Used Cars: Delinquencies are relatively higher and BAF continues to remain cautious. New Cars are accelerating.
  • Gold Loans: Will cross 1000 gold loan branches by the end of Mar'25.Focus on maintaining competitive positioning in Tier 3 and Tier 4 markets for gold loans.

Asset Quality

  • GNPA/NNPA - Remains reasonably well under the long-term GNPA guidance of 1.2%-1.4%.
  • While certain segments like two-wheeler and three-wheeler loans are under pressure, management is confident in their risk management strategies.
  • Loan losses have stabilized, and the credit costs were stable QoQ. Loan loss to average AUF was 2.16% in Q3 (vs. 2.13% in Q2FY25).

Liquidity & Margins

  • Liquidity buffer stood at INR136.6b as of Dec'24. In Q3, the cost of funds was 7.96%, a decrease of 1 bps over Q2FY25.

Product Portfolio Expansion

  • BAF Plans to expand product offerings in the Airtel partnership, with a roadmap for additional products.

Other Key Points

  • 48% of the collections are still physical (through collection agencies)
  • Geographic presence has peaked, and it added 14 new locations. It is adding more branches but not more locations.

Key Updates for the Quarter     

BFL 3.0 Strategy

  • Launched long-range strategy termed BFL 3.0, focusing on transformation and digital integration.

Partnership with Bharti Airtel

  • Announced a strategic partnership to offer nine products on the Airtel Thanks app, including personal loans and business loans.
  • BAF has a five-year vision for this partnership. It will target around 200m Airtel customers which do not overlap with BFL. Will initially start with MSME, Gold Loans, 2W, Insta EMI Cards, and LAP.

Discontinuation of Co-branded Credit Cards

  • Stopped incremental sourcing of co-branded credit cards with RBL Bank and DBS, while ensuring existing cardholders continue to receive services.
  • The discontinuation will not impact the Company’s future revenue share from this arrangement.

Outlook & Valuation

BAF reported a robust performance during the quarter driven by healthy AUM growth, while higher non-interest income and well-contained credit costs led to earnings beat in Q3FY25. On the financial front, BAF’s AUM growth remains in line with the management guidance of 25-28%, while the opex-to-AUM number remained in a narrow range. Loan book growth is expected to come from Secured loans, while a low share in mortgages can eventually mean a lot of room to scale the AUM in the future. Deposit book at Rs. 68,797 Cr (+19% YoY), and it is forming 20% of borrowings, reducing dependence on market funding. Additionally, new verticals like cars, tractors, CVs, and MFI can become major growth drivers over the long term. Some compression in NIMs is expected due to higher competitive intensity. BAF’s profitability growth should be cushioned by the high growth fee income businesses, which tends to grow faster than the AUM. For instance, Insurance Distribution accounts for 44% of the fee income in FY2024. Asset quality is expected to decline slightly but remains well above the industry average and the stated management guidance. Its Gross Stage 3 assets were only 1.12% of the total loan book, and the Net Stage 3 assets stood at 0.49%.BAF’s customer franchise, like its AUM, is showing no signs of slowdown (up 21% YoY).

Bajaj Finance has a diversified product mix comprising both secured (61% in FY2024) and unsecured products (40%). It has delivered stable RoE of ~20% and fast growth during FY2013-24, as it balanced the portfolio between high-yielding profit generators (CD financing and unsecured loans) and longer-tenure scale builders (mortgages).  BAF continues to remain a leading candidate in the financial services industry, given its robust unparalled growth track record, superior asset quality, Profitability expansion, and a strong RoA/RoE profile. At CMP of Rs.8410, the stock is trading at 4.7x FY26E BV. We recommend a BUY rating on the stock.

Consolidated Financial Statements